Well, well, well, the Chicago Bears have a quarterback. Or do they? It looks like highway robbery to me. The Denver Broncos get two first round picks and Kyle Orton? Are you kidding me? When Cutler became available by my new favorite owner in the NFL, Pat Bowlen, the Broncos said the asking price was two first-round draft picks. Normally when you put something for sale, you ask for more than what you know you are really going to get. In this case, the Bears offered more than the starting point. Wow! Chicago, my kind of team.
If you haven’t guessed already I’m not a big Jay Cutler fan. He has never been able to win a big game. Two years ago all the Broncos had to do was beat the lowly 49ers in Mile High in week 16 to get into the playoffs and Cutler couldn’t get it done. The same thing happened again last year as the Broncos swooned down the stretch and ended up firing head coach Mike Shanahan after the season. Shanahan’s decision to draft Jay Cutler ended up costing him his job. Cutler has all the tools but one, and that is the most important one – the head. Cutler is a little baby and if you are a mental midget, you will never win in the NFL. Cutler is 17-20 as a starter. How does that record justify giving up two first-round picks and a starting quarterback with a better winning record? Once again, wow!
This move kind of reminds me of the Tampa Bay trade for head coach John Gruden. The Bucs gave up two-first round picks and two-second round picks which doomed them from the start. They got the Super Bowl win the first year with Tony Dungy’s team and sucked every year since because they didn’t have those picks to keep them at a high level. That’s why I think the Bears may be the division favorite this year, but the price they paid is too high and if they don’t win right away it will be a horrible deal. I wouldn’t trade Cutler for Aaron Rodgers no way, no how. Even though, like Cutler, Rodgers has not yet proven he can win the big game or take a team on his shoulders and lead them to victory. The difference is Rodgers improved from week to week last year and actually had he had a kicker he would have had at least three come-from-behind wins. Cutler hasn’t improved any if at all since he became a starter. Last year’s big numbers were because the Broncos lost six running backs to injury, all they did was pass.
I am a happy man today. The Bears just shot themselves in the foot if they don’t win the Super Bowl this year. To be honest, I was much more worried about the Bears signing Michael Vick when he becomes available in July than getting Cutler. The Bears have taken a huge gamble which I think it will be a one-year success story, and believe you me, I am not counting out the Packers to win the division. I believe the Packers switch to the 3-4 defense is much less complicated than the media makes you believe. I mean, it’s not a different game. It’s not a foreign defense that nobody has ever played before. Anyway, I digress, bottom line is I think the Bears GM along with head coach Lovie Smith made a desperate move to save their jobs after not making the playoffs since winning the NFC in 2006.
I can’t wait for opening day. Rodgers proved he can handle the hype when he whipped the Vikings last year on opening day on Monday Night Football. This year Rodgers will be second fiddle to the Bears and Cutler. I love it. Cutler opens his Bears’ career at Lambeau Field. I am pumped and it is only April, it is going to be a long five months. Plenty of time for Charles Woodson and Al Harris to get ready. Another early prediction – Harris takes one to the house.
My 13-3 team just went 6-10 and my OL and DL are decimated w/ injuries. I’ve got to reload. I need (10) DLs and (6) LBs, but the draft this yr is loaded w/ “tweeners”. Hey, lets go 3-4 because I only need (8) of each and I’ve good pretty good LBs. So first I find a good coach who has made the conversion before. Now, where do I go if I keep my #9? Why, CB of course! The 3rd best OT is avail, but has character and weight problems and I’m not sure about the best NT because of recent revelations of “substance”. (Besides, I like Brace better, but not at 9) Also, I’m very aware of all the flack I’m getting on Al Davis’s blog about what I “knew” about Harrell a couple of yrs ago and don’t want to go there again. Yeah, I’m going to play it safe w/ the CB because I know he’s going to be a starter.
Larry – what do you think of CB Mike Mickens from Cinci? Don’t remember where I read it but he’s a big hitting corner with less than stellar speed who scouts project to excel *if* he’s protected in a zone scheme. The last mock draft I saw showed him in the early third. There’s another CB from San Jose State (Francis) who has great measureables. In short, if they don’t draft Malcolm at #9, there’s still time to grab another corner in the second or third…
Matt, you are probably right with that grade. It’s interesting that a year earlier without AR starting, that draft grade probably slips to a B, if that. The shame of that draft was Terrence Murphy might have developed into something special but we will never know.
I am now wondering that if another Matt, Matt Sanchez is there at number 9, if the phones will be burning or quiet in the Packer draft area. I’m wondering if Denver or the Jets might prompt San Francisco to move up one and give the Pack an extra pick. I like the odds.
Larry, I don’t see us drafting a corner in this draft unless it’s a late round flyer. The corners of the future are Tramon Williams and Patrick Lee and Will Blackmon, we are also set at safety provided Collins gets resigned, and honestly I didn’t like Malcom Jenkins performance at the combine. He looks more like a 2nd round safety not a 1st round corner.
I don’t think that the Raji rumors about the positive test at the combine is true. However this does make his previous incident resurface about him getting caught smoking the big M some years back. I don’t know how that will get veiwed by GMs around the league. Myself I could really care less if he smoked pot with his friends when he was in college… big deal so what, move on.
A trade down would be fine in this draft. Then stock up on guys like Jaron Gilbert DE, Ron Brace NT, Evander Hood DE, or one of those other LBs that will go end of 1st and 2nd rounds. If we trade down our 1st pick that could become 2 starters on defense that we need, plus our high 2nd round pick, another starter.
JeffN – Good post, plus we may save some $$’s by trading down that we can use to re-sign folks we really want to keep.
Larry-
again…if TT drafts jenkins at 9 he has to release Jarrett Bush in August (see previous post). TT decided to not draft Malcolm Jenkins or another DB high when the Titans tried to sign Bush away and when he signed Aaron Smtih. He decided that Bush was worth 2 million a year and also guaranteed money to Smith this year. Although, I don’t always agree with TT’s move, he doesn’t do stupid things. They are very strategic. It’s pretty clear of what TT’s eval of this year’s DB class is by his limited FA moves…2 of the 3 have been in the secondary. If he thought better guys were to be had in the draft, he wouldn’t have resigned Bush or signed Smith away from the Steelers.
Think TT can pretty much ignore WR and DB groups on the first day and focus on the front 7 and O-Line…and as we’ve seen time and again, if he doesn’t like who’s there or thinks he can get a better player later, he won’t “overpay” in the draft, but trade back a few spots or more and take the guy he likes where he thinks they should be drafted.
Frankly, here is what I expect…I expect TT tto trade down from #9 and get an additional 2nd rounder. I actually think he will then do the unthinkable and trade back into the bottom have of round one.
Right now we have #9, #41, #73, #83.
I think we’ll end up having something like: #21, #31, #41, #83
I see TT trying to get both an O-Line and a front 7 guy in the 2nd half of round one.
If a player can’t pass a drug screen that is widely publicized, you know that his wonderlic score is under two digits, if not low one digit. I think character still matters and would give a pass to guys like Raji every single time. Pickett can survive for a couple of years. We need a pass rusher on defense and that would mean if Orakpo is available he is the best pick. Of course, this will certainly never happen with the management we have, but if Ron Wolf were in charge….If we need a db, and Taylor Mays is there, snap him up too. Then find that OT in the third round.
If you are wondering about my trade scenario, my hypothetical was with the Eagles. I could see them trading up to #9 to get either Crabtree or Sanchez.
Probably more likely we’d get #21, #28 and a 4th rounder for #9 and #83.
So let me adjust…
So our picks for 1st 4 rounds would be: #21, #28 #41, #73, #109, #121 (eagles).
Nice hidden benefit of this trade is that we won’t have a player on our roster, who was drafted with the pick we received from the Jets for Favre.
Roy – newsflash: Taylor Mays is a USC Trojan, and elected to not enter the draft this year.
I don’t think Raji falls too far. The team drafting him will get some clause inserted to protect themselves, should he get caught lovin’ on the doobey some more. Should he fall, the Pack takes him. If not, I’m guessing one of those top OLB’s then. First day goes like this for me- Raji, OLB,DL,DL or if Raji is gone, OLB, Brace, DL,DL. Either way, some combination of DL and (1) OLB. Wild card is, if one of those good OT’s slips to TT and he can’t pass him up.
Hey…here’s a nice fun tidbit to chew on…if you take away our 2 wins over the 0-16 Lions last year, we’re 4-10….
hmm…just occurred to me…I’m not saying, I’m just saying.
Matt, thanks for the news. It travels slower here! Upon further review, and if your trade scenario develops that leaves us with guys like Tyson Jackson and maybe a falling like a rock Malcolm Jenkins?
Hayton that sounds like something a bitter Bears or Vikings fan would say about the Pack. I’ll take that as an insult.
Matt, I can’t believe you would say something like that! Hush my mouth. Next you’ll be saying something like take away our division wins and we are 2-14. Those were two very significant wins over the very powerful and challenging Indianapolis Colts and a team guided by one of the greatest coaches to guide the Green Bay Packers, the original King Mike the First of the Seattle Seahawks.
Roy, King Mike had a bad team and Senaca Wallace was the QB. The head scratcher is Indy. All really old news now, our O-line and defense will be stronger etc. I’m expecting a division title if TT can get us some help in the draft and one of his bargain castoffs makes the roster. Go scouting department and Big Green
JeffN-
so your insulted that 2 of our wins were over an 0-16 team…good news is that we didn’t make them 1-15…Now that would have been insulting.
Roy-
I was thinking more like: Michael Oher, Eben Britton, William Betty, Peria Jerry, Larry English, Connnor Barwin or Ziggy Hood.
If I was gonna take a stab…I’d say #21- Michael Oher, #28 – Larry English and just for kicks: #41 – Ron Brace or Jarron Gilbert, whoever is left.
We all know what our teams record was. We don’t need to hear it and don’t want to hear more about it.
Actually what you said, what you did, was took a terrible 6-10 record, emphasized it, and rubbed it in faces of Packer fans.
What’s worse is you came back and did it a 2nd time.
And just for those who don’t want to go back read above posts that message was for Hayton.
Per MH:
“”Hey…here’s a nice fun tidbit to chew on…if you take away our 2 wins over the 0-16 Lions last year, we’re 4-10….
hmm…just occurred to me…I’m not saying, I’m just saying.”"
You & Lew-Lew should start your own blog. Then you could play with yourselves. You’re probably good at that. What a troll.
OK, I give up, 4 or more in 84, and I dont care who we pick. I’m losing my guts at 9 anyway because of Rich Campbell, Mandarich, maybe Hawk, and the little CB a couple of yrs ago who I cant even remember now. Top 10 too risky and too expensive; thats why I went with the “known” future All-Pro. I’ll trade down, again, for more picks.
Here’s a blast from the past. Just goes to show the highest draft pick for the Packers usually isn’t the best.
1 25 Antwan Edwards CB Clemson – a good trivia question
2 47 Fred Vinson CB Vanderbilt
3 87 Mike McKenzie CB Memphis
Here’s a blast from the past. Just goes to show the highest draft pick for the Packers usually isn’t the best.
1 25 Antwan Edwards CB Clemson – a good trivia question
2 47 Fred Vinson CB Vanderbilt – got Ahman Green for him
3 87 Mike McKenzie CB Memphis – best of the bunch.
Another case where the partial truth of “building thru the draft” does occur. But, trade a draft pick for something more valuable happens.
Larry-
I agree with you. I think a trade down is a good call…you present a good case to the high risks of picking high…I also tend to think that there are going to be enough suitors out there for trader ted to get this done…I really like the idea of having a couple of picks in the 20-40 range…think there is good quality to be had in this years draft there.
A guy named Ziggy would be an improvement on a guy who uses zig-zags.
Credits to Jarett Bell of USA Today for this info from last year.
BREAKING DOWN THE DRAFT PICK MONEY
No. 1 pick, guaranteed*
• 2003: Carson Palmer $16.417 million
• 2007: JaMarcus Russell $29.02 million
Salary cap
• 2003: $75 million
• 2007: $109 million
First-round picks, average guaranteed money
• 2003: $6.482 million
• 2007: $10.853 million
2006 rookie deals
• No. 2 overall, Reggie Bush. Running Back. New Orleans Saints $26.25 million guaranteed
• No. 30 overall, Joseph Addai. Running Back. Indianapolis Colts. $4.975 million guaranteed
i’m thinking OT first round. need to protect the franchise QB and our bookends are near done. plus, i’m really sick of the consistent false start penalties from clifton. do you guys think the guy from virginia will be there? i’m thinking he’ll trade down and look for oher or that britton guy from arizona??
not thinking he’ll see a DL or LB at 9 he’ll like that much.
Roy, Warren Sapp tested positive, dropped a lot of spots and still went on to have a good career,
Mark if your implication is that Raji is the same as Warren Sapp, I’m not biting on that sandwich. Even without the pot problem, I don’t see Raji as a guy that is worth a number 9 pick. It’s just my opinion, but after the top 5 picks, I think you could shake up a sack of the next 20 and there wouldn’t be much difference. That just enforces the sentiment to trade down if some team…and I get the impression there will be…that is in love with Sanchez.
I say we give some team a Dirty Sanchez and take some of their picks too.
Lets screw everybody; is Sanchez better than Brohm and Flynn? Zeke and Bart sure worked well together, and if it weren’t for the #s I had a hard time telling ‘em apart. Out of the box thinking?
Who says TT won’t trade?????
Larry, he trades, only just down. But this time I agree with Roy, if we can get someone interested enough there are plenty of good players later and we need more than 1 lineman.
Here’s the draft value chart which they say the NFL uses. Can’t verify but if it is, according to my math a number 12 and a number 18 equals 2100 points and would be traded for number 9, and Packs second and third rounders which totals 2080, close enuf.
Here’s the website to see if I added this stuff correctly.
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php
Yeah, the trade I was refering to was Jansen.
Pro Football Talk & and other media outlets are reporting the Packers working out (QB)Rob Powlus who is a point guard at Duke. Is Brian Brohm this bad? This guy has been out of football 4years. Why not just invite him to camp? Please TT & MM lets stick to Qbs who actually played football recently.
Maybe they think they’ll find another basketball player like Fuzzy Thurston. There’s certainly nothing wrong with giving guys like that a chance, tho that chance to stick always seems very very slim. It is puzzling that Brohm was thought to be the most nfl ready which shows what “experts” know!