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Statistical oddities

If only statistics told the whole story, and I’m not getting detailed enough here to make a serious analysis, but here a few stats that seem kind of weird as we approach the midpoint of the season.

The Minnesota Vikings are 6-0 and the media darlings most likely to make it to the Super Bowl. The Packers on the other hand are generally perceived as not playing up to expectations and could be considered a disappointment after five games because of their two losses. The Chicago Bears might also be disappointed in their 3-2 record. If you had to guess records based on stats alone you might think different.

Currently the Packers’ offense ranks 10th in the NFL, the Vikings are 13th and the Bears are 19th. Defensively the Packers are 8th, the Bears 13th and Vikings are 18th. Who is leading the division? The NFL has so many statistics and you can analyze them in so many ways that in this case the phrase “statistics don’t lie” can be thrown out. At least when at looking at won-loss records, as that is the only stat that counts.

When I look at these stats which show the Packers as the best offense and best defense in the NFC North Division I like to think it is a positive considering the way the season has played out. I mean it is not like the Packers are playing horrible football.

If the Packers continue to remain in the top ten on defense all season it will mean they are continuing to get better as the opposition gets stronger which will in turn lead to good things. Despite the problems on offense right now I think with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback the Packers will move the ball all season and will again rank in the top ten like they did last year when coming in sixth. Going into the season all we asked for really was a better defense, the problems on the offensive line came out of the blue for the most part but I think they can be fixed as the season progresses. It could be blind optimism but I’ve seen it before when an individual unit, be it the offensive line or defensive line or secondary, come together and even turn into a position of strength as the season wore on. It happened in Green Bay two years ago when Ryan Grant exploded for 900-some yards over the last seven games when the Packers couldn’t run a lick the first nine games.

I like to see the Packers ranked high in the stats and winning is the most important, but remember, if you are last in offense and defense you aren’t going to be winning many games. Moving the ball and stopping the opponent does help a little. My question to you is does the fact that the Vikings are not exactly statistical superstars against pretty much the same schedule the Packers have played give you any hope the Packers can catch the Vikings? It does me. At least a little bit. I think the Packers’ defense can get better, I think the Vikings are who they are. The Bears are the big unknown on both sides of the ball, but I get the feeling the Lovie Smith era in Chicago might be winding down. If you are going to have Jay Cutler at quarterback you can’t be a running offense. But that is another story.

It’s between the Packers and Vikings if you ask me.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, October 20th, 2009 at 8:01 pm and is filed under Al Davis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

25 Yrs Pack

Sorry for the aweful typing, boss wants me working…or something…
Rocky70

Ahman Green can probably pick up blitzes & catch passes out of the backfield better than most NFL RBs even at this juncture in his career…………. He doesn’t have the burst he once had running the ball but I doubt he’s been signed for his rushing attempts………… Keeping him healthy could still be an issue.

GB should have signed him in the 2009 off-season………… He’ll get more than the 46 yards needed to break Taylor’s record…….. He deserves it…….. He didn’t burn any bridges when he left GB (unlike an old QB)………. That’s one reason why he’s back………. Just IMO.
http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

“Linemen that cant even lineup much less block.” A call-out on a 10 year vet, without considereing his explanation. What I didn’t see in your post “Pack4life” was what you expected MM to do about it during the game. Did the injury that took him out of the game solve your problem or did it make it worse? Just wondering.

I guess the “negative nellies” have to be taken on Rocky70 and Admin. I’m sure glad I agree (most of the time) with the guy with the ink supply; how about you Rock?
Bob

AL: You think that everyone here is a viking fan, Maybe it’s you that is a closet Viking fan? Look up a definition of Forum or opinion! your a piece of work. Oh and by the way still not forgetting the Loser comment. I come to Green Bay every year for training camp. I would love to meet you there
25 Yrs Pack

Yes, Green can up the Blitz. Good point. If he can pick up the blitz, which i think he won’t have any problem doing, and atleast be a threat on the goaline, make the defense stuff the box, this could be a huge lift to our already potent offense. I don’t see any defense stopping our playaction by the goaline with him in their.
http://www.packernet.com admin

No Bob, I only think Viking fans are Viking fans. All I know is I don’t go to Vikings web sites and praise the Packers.
Pack4life

I must apologize for getting on Campen for the penalties. Its seems Jerome Boger was the Ref last week. If you dont remember his son Tra was a training camp cut as a db. Tra I dont believe ever stuck to another roster. I am sorry but as a dad you know Boger at some level has it in for the Packers. So I am willing to give MM and Campen a mulligan for last week. If it shows up against the Browns…
Rocky70

” I guess the “negative nellies” have to be taken on Rocky70 and Admin. I’m sure glad I agree (most of the time) with the guy with the ink supply; how about you Rock? ”

Overall, I have to agree with Al on several fronts………. The positivity is most appreciated when surrounded by the “negative nellies”………. Some fans have difficulty comprehending that all NFL teams are a ‘work in progress’…… I’ve said it before: If/when GB loses it’s 7th game then I will pack it in for season 2009……. And then get ready for season 2010……..
http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

My goodness, good work, Pack4. Stranger things have happened. I do know this, however, that the refs and the league are getting an awfully lot of complaints. Along with over zealously enforcing old rules more frequently they are being accused of being highly selective on who they are going after. I’m not saying we are being picked on but I am saying we have had a lot of “phantoms”. They often take you out of rhythm and are, or can be, drive stopper. Won’t use as an excuse because you should play above them, and we have, but it does make a 50-0 game a 25-0 game like last week.
25 Yrs Pack

Just imagine if their were Packer blogs in the 70s and 80s. You would be calling everyone Vikings fans, Bears fans, “any team but Packers” fans. This is what happens when L’s start to appear more than W’s. Just because fans get fet up with the way things are going, doent make them less of a fan. It makes them human. Comparing their teams success to other teams, especially ones in the same division with former players, isn’t being a fan for the other teams, its looking for answers. These areguments about who is a true fan has is basically all their is to talk about in cities like oakland and detroit. It will all go away with wins, as all problems do. When the Pack pull it together, I don’t want to hear any bandwagon talk either. You have to care about a team to be critical at times. Otherwise, why would we be here?
Matt Hayton

Ok. Here are my top 5 QB’s:
1. Manning
2. Brady
3. Brees
4. Rothlesberger
5. Eli

Sorry the guys with rings and the one leading a 6-0 team get the nod of AR.
Pack4life

I also would like to apologize to those who said MM was Sanbagging for the Vikes games. Well this has proven to be absolute fact. I thought at first glance that it was Sci-Fi. The miracle insertion of Finley in the game plan last vs the Vikes is something I will never forget. Now they have signed Tauscher and Ahman Green with Nov 1 as their targeted return to duty. Hopefully the we can play the vikes in the playoffs because this seems to be the only MM has to get better.
roadking

its not about yards for and yards against. its about points scored and points given up
we are not that good in the red zone we kick to many field goals, we need more touchdowns, alot of teams are good from the 20s to the 20s its all about the points
25 Yrs Pack

Top 5 in the League
1) Manning 2) Brees 3) Big Ben 4) Brady 5) AR

Ben infront of Brady because he won rings under 2 different coaches. Brady needed the hoody and a kicker to get his.

Top 5 so far THIS year
1) Manning 2) Brees 3) BF 4) Orton 5) AR

Sorry, Orton is undefeated and only has one pick.

Top 5 to start a franschise
1) AR 2) Eli 3) Big Ben 4) Brees 5) Matt Ryan

Age is big here, sorry PM, TB, and the 40 year old.
25 Yrs Pack

on that last part about starting a franchise, switch eli and ben around
packer_bob

The problem with this “Who is or isn’t a top 5 QB?” debate is that each QB is a recipient of, as well as diminished by, his particular team’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as where each of them are in the development of their respective careers. Would Tom Brady or either Manning look very good behind our sieve of a line at this point? Maybe their veteran talent would help. Bottom line, none of us know and we never will.

I think all of us agree that wherever AR should rank amongst QB’s this season, he certainly has the potential to be a top 5 QB were he to have all the tools in his toolbox. In other words, if we had a running game and he weren’t wearing the opponents so often, he has the ability to be a top tier QB in this league.

As far as the Ahman Green signing, I don’t think the Packers signed him looking for the Green of 2003 or 2004 as a runner. If he stays healthy, he can give us experience, quality back up, short yardage running and some of the other intangibles one would look for from a veteran, like picking up the blitz and maybe running a nice screen here or there.

His health is a big ?, but evidently we thought enough of him to bring him in and it’s not like he will be carrying the primary load. Jackson and Wynn have been enough ??????? in the health department to be confused with the Riddler anyway, so I consider this a pretty low risk move.
packer_bob

For whoever asked, “troika” is an old Stalinist term for a committe of three, which in this case would be McCarthy, Thompson and Murphy. LarryTex’s obsessive use of the term is an indication of his inability to let go of his old Communist leanings.

LarryTex was called out as a Communist by Whittaker Chambers in the late 1940′s, a charge he adamantly denied until they found pictures of him flashing the peace sign on some microfilm hidden in a hollowed out pumpkin. (This was especially strange, as an old pumpkin is a poor hiding place for sensitive documents and the “peace sign” as such did not appear in popular culture again for 2 decades.) Since this is such an old story, and with the proximity to Halloween, I feel I am not speaking out of turn in bringing this up.

BTW, those of us with an education rooted in the Western Democratic tradition prefer the term “triumvirate”, so you can use that word as a substitate without running the risk of being called before a committe as LarryTex once was.
packer_bob

25yrsPack says:”Just imagine if their were Packer blogs in the 70s and 80s.”

Do I have to? I mean, I’d really rather not go through that shit again. First time was bad enough.
justawake

Larry says “I guess the “negative nellies” have to be taken on Rocky70 and Admin. I’m sure glad I agree (most of the time) with the guy with the ink supply”. Really Larry?

One of the things that drew me to this site was Al’s negative angry blogs. It was cool to see someone get as emotional as I did over the Packers.

At no point did I think we were in danger of losing to the Rams, but Mr. Positivity (Admin) predicted a Rams victory early in the game. Did you agree with that?

Keep up the negativity Al. Your stats to try and show that the Pack are better than they’ve looked doesn’t suit you.
The only thing that should matter is how they’ve looked on the field, sloppy and unprepared.
Matt Hayton

Lil Bro-

Not buying 10-6, that would mean we would lose only 4 of these 9 games:
vs. Viqueens, vs. Dallas, vs. 49ers, @Detroit, vs. Ravens, @Bears, @Steelers, vs. Seahawks, @ Arizona.

In order for that to happen, we will need to stay injury free @ safety, OL and see much improved OL play and Rodgers needs to get the ball out of his hands…especially against the better defenses on this list like Minne, 49ers, Ravens, Bears and the Steelers.

I thought 10-6 at the beginning of the year but not sure that is possible w/that OL. My goal for this team is 9-7 and getting a wildcard birth. Which I think is doable, but we cannot stub our toe against a lesser opponent, otherwise we are toast.

Think we beat Minne, split vs. Dallas and 49ers, Lose to detroit in detroit (Turkey-day game has never been good to us); beat the Ravens, lose to the Bears and Steelers, beat the Seahwaks and lose on the road at Arizona. if this happens, plus we beat the creampuffs on the road-Browns and Bucs, we finish 9-7 and then we pray we have enough tiebreakers to get into postseason.
Mike from Arizona

This team will get to 10-6 or better now that they are starting to enforce performance. If you do not perform, you get benched. Hawk is a good example. If they do not get better by season end, trade or cut.

Hopeful this will apply to penalties as well. Maybe there is hope for MM yet… Is Leroy Butler instructing him on how things were under Holmgren?
http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

No sarcasm intended, p_b, thats funny stuff. While I’m hazy on the Chambers trials (ie, Rosenbergs), due to no TV and only Newsreels, I remember the Joe McCarthy years real well and think he did more good than bad. I really use “troika” in reference to the horses rather than the “committee of three”. Sobeit. Don’t like “triumvirate” tho, too long, and I have to slow down to type it.

Geez, doesn’t it figure; some drawn to this site because Al wrote a negative post.
PackerPete

10/20/09 11:36 PM

BTW, I love Ahman Green.

Yeah, thats right, I love that man.

He is what a RB oughta be.

He is one tough SOB.

I wish we woulda kept him, he may not be capable of another 1800 yd season, but he ALWAYS got the tough 1 yd when it was needed.

Ahman runs about 6 inches off the ground and is a missile near the goal line.

We couyld sure use a guy like that, ask John Kuhn and hoiw he got submarined by a queen at the goal line. That would be a sure TD if we had AG on the 45.

Tell em you TT whiners, who is REALLY better than a 32 yr old AG?

BJack? really??????
DWynn? really?????

check the stats, 2nd all time in GB rushing, lots of heart and a great short yardage back as well as a really good screen and pass catching back.

TT and his clones (you know who Im talking about here) need to get ove rthe diaper patrol and get some GD veteran influence on this baby faced squad or we are going NOWHERE!!!!!

Oh yeah, just like my rant on getting Kampys hand in the dirt, I have the pulse of this franchise…

Fuhgit Joe Arrogant, I am the truth!
http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

Wow, PeePee, and the lord spoketh! We’ll see how you BTW after you’ve paid 800K for that future knee injury.
Pete H

Well I see that Hawk has a diminished role and now isn’t available for the media. Is he seriously pissed? How about play better! Maybe at least like a second rounder. HE’s been adequate to occcaisionally solid, never spectacular. As I said before, Matthews has already made more plays than Hawk has in his career.
Steve Cheez

I completely agreed when we didn’t sign Green after ’06; no way he was worth the $27(?) mil Houston threw at him, and initially scoffed at bringing him back now. But has been pointed out above, right now how do we have that’s better?

Now can we just get back that line of Cliffy, Wahle, Flanagan, Rivera and Tauscher (and the occasional U-71 Barry) in their prime?
Oddball

“trio” brothers. “Trio”

Quick, simple, clear and easy on the fingers. I can barely spell “troika” and “triumveer-ate” is just plain out of my public school scope.

Isn’t the “peace sign” more accurately a “victory” sign?

Funny stuff, PB. Thanks for the laugh this morning.
http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

I dunno, Oddball, Trio has its appeal, but I still go for those powerful, charging, white steeds. Maybe we should vote on it, but why should I, it was my idea?

Yeah, I don’t think Churchill was thinking peace, altho it was Roosevelt who stuned him when he insisted on “total victory” and unconditional surrender. Ah, when we had balls…..!
http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

Steve Cheez, you may have hit on something. Retro Packers. Might work.

Nah, lets see these kids through and see if there is some semblance to what we saw in the Pre.
iccyfan

Matt Hayton Says: “Not buying 10-6, that would mean we would lose only 4 of these 9 games: vs. Viqueens, vs. Dallas, vs. 49ers, @Detroit, vs. Ravens, @Bears, @Steelers, vs. Seahawks, @ Arizona. Think we Lose to detroit in detroit (Turkey-day game has never been good to us)”

You think we’re going to lose to a team that’s won one game in 1.25 seasons and we just beat 26-0 in a performance that has everybody bitching because it should have been twice that? I don’t understand your logic; of course I’m still scratching my head over your hope for a tie in the Packer / viking game! You’re an enigma…

With our longing for Packers of the past, I wonder if Frankie (Bag O’ Donuts) Winters is anywhere near game shape? He’s one of my all-time favorites…

I see no particular down-side to giving the 32 y/o Ahman Green a shot, though it makes me wonder why Kregg Lumpkin is sitting on our practice squad…
iccyfan

LarryTex Says: “I don’t think Churchill was thinking peace”

You’d better pay a visit to the Winston Churchill Museum on the campus of Westminster College in Fulton, MO. It’s where Winnie gave his famous “Iron Curtain” speech in 1946; they rebuilt a bombed-out Sir Christopher Wren -designed English Church as his museum and also have a section of the Berlin Wall to commemorate a speech by Mikhail Gorbachev. Little known fact I learned there – Churchill’s dad died of syphillis!
Oddball

Iccy –

The concern for me is that we really couldn’t run in the first three quarters and only scored 2 TDs against a scrub Dline which generated a lot of pressure. Put Stafford and CJ back in, put the Dline starters back in and put the game in Detroit . . .

I still think we win, but I doubt it’s gonna be a shutout.
Oddball

Good point on Lumpkin.
packer_bob

It was a V for victory sign originally, but the microfilm pictures of LarryTex revealed that he was using it with shoulder length hair, a denim vest over an otherwise shirtless upper torso, a Billy Jack hat and an oddly misshapen “cigarette.”

These other details are what cooked his goose.
Matt Hayton

Iccy-
read oddball’s post, in response to why I think we lose to the Lions. Then go back and do a history lesson on on our record in Detroit on thanksgiving, it isn’t pretty. Recently, on turkey day every game we’ve played over there has been close and they beat us in 2003. Even the ’07 squad, that had everything clicking, had trouble against them on Thanksgiving.

Plus we just gave up 5 sacks to their 2nd string D-Line (yes, the 1-4 LIONS) and the fact that Schwartz will treat this game like it is their Super Bowl, and I think they get us this year.
http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

I see the criticism for having (3) FBs has subsided. Hall out, Johnson hurt, maybe we need a fourth FB. Oh wait, Sutton isn’t a FB is he?
Matt Hayton

BTW- I’ll go out on another limb here and say they make the playoffs within 2 years. They’ve got alot of young, hungry talent over there between Stafford, Smith, CJ, Pettigrew and Dumas. Need some help on D and they’ll be a contender very quickly, IMO.
Matt Hayton

Hell no Larry, they should have cut either Kuhn or Hall and been playing Johnson from the get go. Another boneheaded personnel decision by TT. Then they could have kept Sutton from the get go. see how that works?
Matt Hayton

besides QJ just sprained an ankle, maybe he misses a go or two, think we should be able to get by w/one Fb for a game, since clearly TT has no problems going through the first 4 w/only 1 RB (Wynn doesn’t count).
http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

Careful p_b you’re getting your decades mixed up – late 40s high school, 50s USN, close on 60s (I did march in Cambridge-shake my fist at John Jasper) but never had the long hair and reefer. Too busy w/ night school, raising kids, and building a career.
packer_bob

I read two articles about Hawk, and he only played 9 snaps last game? Didn’t realize that.

As the article points out, highly doubtful we don’t release him going into next season owing $4 million in base salary to a guy who is effectively a back up at this point. I also didn’t realize he hasn’t been involved in TO since 2007. His sack record stinks too.

I won’t bust anybody’s chops on the pick, as I thought it was a good one at the time. It’s just too bad he hasn’t stepped up. Hopefully, he’ll make some progress this season and not turn out to be a big waste of a #5.
http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

Yeah, Matt Hayton, we need a rookie in there to fix this up!!! Oh, I forgot, there must be something in there that I can relate to TTs ego.
packer_bob

Just jokes, LarryTex, just jokes. I liked tying the whole troika thing into the Red Scare, Pumpkin Papers, etc. Then give you credit for being the first “peace-love-dope” hippie back in the 40′s of all things.

You don’t strike me as the type that would be either a Red or a hippie, which is what tickled my funny bone in the first place.
Reid

Matt Hayton regarding the Lions:

“BTW- I’ll go out on another limb here and say they make the playoffs within 2 years. They’ve got alot of young, hungry talent over there between Stafford, Smith, CJ, Pettigrew and Dumas. Need some help on D and they’ll be a contender very quickly, IMO.”

Matt – isn’t that what we have, a lot of young, hungry talent between AR, Grant, Jennings, Finley, Raji, Matthews, Q Johnson, T Williams, TJ Lang, etc, etc?
Pack4life

Well if Hawk focused on making plays rather than commercials he might be a better player.
http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

Well, p_b, that is really funny stuff, well done. Yeah, I guess I am the farthest you can get from Red or Hip. Goldwater was (and still is) my lifetime example, along w/ St. Vincent but thought it a waste of 20% of the brain power in the country at the time. Oh well, back to football.

On a serious note, its no secret I favor build thru the draft and suplement with FAs. We’ve done that with variance of opinion as to the success. Like it or not we are rebuilding the OL – w/o I might add a “super star”; it’ll take time to jell, thats a fact.

We have the money to bring in a super FA, if they want to come, but did Faneca want to; did we try to trade for Joe Thomas; who knows? Hey, the NYJ picked up Amhad Carroll too, want him back?
roy jamison

The only stat that matters is wins and loses. Scheduling plays a big role in what those stats look like. If you took the Giants stats against the Saints, it wouldn’t look so pretty as the Packers against the Lions. I know Average Joe Hawk is subject of some debate but he’s got to stop making plays like the one describedin the JS..

“With 7:13 left in the second quarter, the Lions ran a basic lead play to the right side. Left end Aaron Kampman and Chillar didn’t exactly execute the play as planned, and that left Hawk against fullback Jerome Felton and tailback Kevin Smith.

Hawk took on Felton, which is Hawk’s responsibility, but he failed to get off the block to either make the tackle or force Smith to the inside. Smith ran free for a 19-yard gain, the Lions’ second-longest run of the game.”
Oddball

I don’t know that we’re in a position to invest in a real stud Oline guy. Seems like we don’t need one great guy as much as we need two or three good guys (Earl Dotson/Adam Timmerman types – not perennial probowlers, but solid players) and a serious threat at RB.

If the line was merely adequate and the RB fearsome, I think this offense could be a scary thing.
roy jamison

I thought this was an astute comment in the GB Press-Gazette chat with Vandermeusse. Maybe we will see Ahman in those third down situations.
JDUB “I know Grant gets bashed a lot for consistently going down on one hit, but to me the biggest problem is that we can’t run a true “west coast offense” without a tailback that can consistently catch the ball out of the backfield. Your thoughts?

Vandy “You might be onto something J Dub. Grant isn’t known for having the best hands, which offers one less dimension to the offense.”
http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

Agreed, Oddball, I think they’re on the roster. I like the agressiveness of Barbre and Lang, Colledge is ok, Sitton may be the best of the lot. My main concern is Spitz and think maybe he’d be better at OG. If we want bigger at C lets draft him. These guys will be OK in the long run (my opinion; any of them might be cut next camp, again who of us know?)

My biggest need on O is a top speedster with power at RB. Green is the only one we’ve ever had and that was a long time ago. Apologies to Paul, Dorsey, and Brockington but not much speed other than Donnie Anderson in GB.

On D what do we need other than backups at CB, SS, and FS? We need more time, thats what; doesn’t matter whether its 3 yrs, 4 yrs, or 5, it doesn’t matter. Thats what it takes.

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Statistical oddities