Are 2012 draft choices worth more than 2011 draft choices?

From Larry R in Appleton, WI

Since so many rules are different this year and probably different for the next few years, how does this change the draft process and the draft value chart?  Here are a few things to consider when looking at the maneuvering coming up in this years draft.

  1. 2011 and 2012 rookie salary caps will make draft choices more valuable than ever before.  Extra draft choices will mean more rookies to work with in camp and fewer high priced veterans.  For most teams, there will be a strong temptation to keep more rookies on the final 53 man roster (or maybe it will be some higher number).  Whatever the final roster count is, the owners will really want to have rookie contract player around and the only 5th and 6th years players around will be the super stars.  The average age of the NFL player is about to drop.
  2. It is possible that teams will have to decide which rookies make the team as much on their performance in tryouts as on their performance in preseason games.  My theory is that if an agreement is not reached in the next couple of weeks, there will be nothing to really force a settlement until regular season games are in danger of being canceled.  An agreement in early to mid-August would mean all regular season games could still be played (ugly, sloppy games but we would still get a 16 game season to watch).
  3. If a team could trade this years draft choice for roughly the same slot next year, they just might be tempted to make the trade.  A rookie without training camp or preseason is not likely to be worth much to the team until next year anyway.
  4. At least the Packers are likely to need more bodies in 2012 than they do in 2011.  There will likely be fewer returning IR players as well as more experienced players with expired contracts leaving at the end of 2011-2012 season.  Therefore those 2012 rookies will have a better chance at making the roster.  2011 will be a tough year for more than 4 or 5 to make the team (rounds 1, 2, and 3 plus one or two surprises free agent).
  5. I would love to see Barnett back this year with 3 very capable starters competing for 2 positions but I think the best we can realistically hope for is trading Barnett for a 3rd round pick about week 2 of the preseason (if there is one).  If there is no preseason, the trade deadline will be important for the first time in years.
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  • Larry

    I’m not sure about the rookie cap affecting the average veterans on a roster…the equalizer is the salary cap…essentially mandating that the money be spent somewhere…Veterans salaries will rise but at least the team knows what it’s getting versus the current system where the risk is high particularly for first round picks.

    From what I’ve read the rookie cap is really only affecting first/second round picks. It seems as though the owners are fairly satified with the contracts in the mid and certainly later rounds. I believe the premier players will be affected especially later in their carreers. Peyton Manning new contract will probably pay him $20M a year…when he’s 38, a couple of years from now…will the Colts want to pay him $20M or save $10M by transistioning to a younger player who will get better by playing not sitting.

    Essentially TT may have been years ahead of his time…blueprinting how teams will shed premier players with a year or two left to allow promising player to gain the experience needed. As always having the right understudy is the key…or having enough time for the understudy to mature in an NFL system.

    I could see Indy taking a second round QB to groom for a couple of years and Peyton Manning playing in 2013 for the Redskins. Not out of the question, look at how many faces of the franchise are finishing their careers with other teams.

    • Rick

      Very astute Larry. Great post.

  • Rick

    In answer to is one pick more or less valuable, I say equal. You do not know the players available from one year to the next, what a teams needs and wants are from one year to the next, and what opportunities and challenges each team faces. It all balances out in the end. Only the first 5 picks are partially effected because of the savings.

  • ScottS

    I heard last summer from a source within the Packers organization that Barnett, while talented, is not a very high quality character type individual and they were already looking for a way to replace him.

  • Larry

    I think one of the hidden benefits of trading down and getting a future years pick is the ability to bundle that pick in the future year to move up and get a “better” player. I equate it to having house money. It’s a pick I normally wouldn’t have…there’s still a chance the player I select won’t pan out so lets package it and get a player I really like. The best part is I still having my other regular picks to complete my roster.

    New England appears to be the king. This year they have 6 picks in the first two rounds. If they really wanted a player…like A.J Green or Von Miller…they have the chips to get that individual player without trading their entire draft (ala Ditka). Although its not the Patriots style to go after one player, year in and year out they seem to have “house money” to play with.

    TT if I recall traded an extra pick to acquire CM3. Jackpot!!!

    • iccyfan

      Interestingly enough, the pick to acquire CMIII came from…..
      Wait for it…
      Wait for it…

      New England!!!

      I admire Belichek’s ability to horse trade, acquiring extra picks and improving his position year in and year out. Fortunately for us, he screwed up when it came to CMIII.

      • http://jlworden1@suddenlink.net LarryTex

        That is so, so, cool, iccy.

        • iccyfan

          The three picks the Packers surrendered for CMIII turned into:

          2nd Round – 2009: Darius Butler – CB (Patriots)
          3rd Round – 2009: Derek Cox – CB (Jaguars – Acquired Pick from Pats for ?)
          3rd Round – 2009: Brandon Tate – WR (Patriots)

          So the Patriots didn’t do too bad in the trade either, getting Darius Butler and Brandon Tate with our picks. I don’t know anything about Derek Cox with the Jags, nor do I see what they gave the Pats for that pick. I see the Pats had a 2009 7th Rounder from the Jags, which they used on Julian Edelman, but surely there was more than that involved! So for CMIII, the Pats ended up with Butler, Tate, Edelmann & ?…

          • Rick

            Umm, Derek Cox was a combine non invite that has 8 interceptions in his first two years in the league and may have been the best CB drafted two years ago. His first pick in his first game was to jump a Reggie Wayne route and interecept Peyton Manning. Not an easy feat.

            The Jags got a STEAL!!!!

    • Rick

      The Panthers trade which turned out the Patriots get pick #1 in second round was genius.

  • iccyfan

    Interesting position piece by Larry R of Appleton; made me think about things from a perspective I’d not considered. With no off-season rookie mini-camp and no OTA’s, how is a rookie to displace a player who already knows what to expect and is hopefully working out on his own (or better yet, with Packer team-mates)?

    I wonder if trading for future draft picks couldn’t turn into a win / win situation should Ted seek out deals with teams in “rebuilding mode”. Probably not – we’re not going to get Carolina or Arizona’s 2012 second rounder (almost assuredly top third) for our 2011 #64. As if this weren’t already enough of a mess…

    On the bright side, our GM has shown himself to be a builder – I’d be surprised if he didn’t have an advantageous plan in place…

    • Rick

      Pick #32 for GB could be a 2011 2nd rd pick and a 2012 2nd next though. If someone wants to move back up into the last pick of day one for a particular player.

      It is nice being that last pick on day one. We can see what is falling to us and either trade or pick.

  • Larry

    Very true…Especially if the trade get you a high 2 to be used day 2 of the draft. Ted seems to always have different ways to go depending on his board.

    Last point, it seems a defensive player has a better chance of making an impact sooner than an offensive draft pick. Offensive guys seem to need a year to fully grasp the system. Findley/Quarless/Nelson and Jones all had mildly successful 1rst years. Starks was PUP and Baluga started late into the season while CM3 had a crazy year 1 and Raji would have been better if he had played the nose..his natural position. I guess what I’m saying is that even without training camp…I’d rather have the guy this year to start the learning process.

    I don’t think we’ll draft a starter day 1 given the team we think we have…so let the training begin!

  • http://jlworden1@suddenlink.net LarryTex

    I must say I’ve never seen such unanimity on Packernet. If I could sum up the above and the prior the conclusion is: 1) TT would never give up enough 2s/3s to move up to the top 10 for and imediate starter (where on D would that be?). 2) Mid thru 30 either, even tho of lesser value and maybe would be a reach. 3) Unless a surprise on TT’s board above 15 unexpectedly drops to 32 we trade down for multiples either this year (long on DL and WRs) or next (unknown). AT least thats what I’m getting out of all these posts.

  • Larry

    As with all things TT…he needs a willing partner and the right deal.

    • Rick

      Sounds like prom all over again….. :)

    • http://jlworden1@suddenlink.net LarryTex

      heh, heh, heh, too much guys, I’m heading back to Texas.

      • Rick

        Why do I feel like you are traveling the country in a big RV. What are you hiding out or something?

        Tell the truth, are you on the run LT?

        LOL :)

  • Packer’s Advocate

    Around the league:

    A #1 for Kolb??? I wouldn’t give more than a 3rd. My bet is that he isn’t a QB who’ll take you to a SB. Maybe not even the playoffs.

    Manning to get the big money??? Hope he realizes the more he gets, the less there is to put a team around him.

    Packer’s:

    This Danny Watkins guy that gets mentioned………… He’s probably about the same age as Colledge I’m guessing but will he be better and is it worth a #1 for a one contract guy?? At #32 he’ll make a little less than what Colledge will get for a new contract.

    • Rick

      Kolb is a starter calibre QB. That is rare in the NFL. Cutler was a starter calibre and was worth 2 #1s and 2 #3s plus a possible starter back. The Texans offered a 2nd round for a possible starter to Atlanta. The Seahawks offered a #40 2nd round swap with #60 2nd round and gave a 3rd round on top of it.

      Kolb is a 1st round pick and maybe a little bit more. Especially with a possible lockout shortened camp and FA. He needs the new teams lingo but knows the plays.

      Watkins is 27 and I just don’t see a team taking him until the late 2nd round. He is fresh but by the time 3 years to have a Olineman up to speed he will be 30. That is a tough one for most teams to swallow.

      • iccyfan

        I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder. In four seasons, Kolb has started 7 games with 11 TD passes, 14 interceptions and a 60% completion percentage. The Schaub comparison is probably a little more representative than that of Jay Cutler. While I’d be surprised if they got a first-rounder in exchange, Seattle did give up a second-rounder for Charlie Whitehurst (it must’ve been the bloodlines)…

        • Rick

          Take away 4 interceptions when he was not a starter and coming in on a horrible 2008 Eagles teamwhen the games were lost causes.

          As a starter in 2009 and 2010 he is 11 TDs 10 Interceptions and a 76% completion rate. I can see a team like the Cardinals or Vikings wanting him immediately.

          The Whitehurst move suprised me too.

        • Steve Cheez

          I remember about 20 years ago a team gave up a #1 for a QB who had done nothing but party and throw INTs in mop-up duty.

          • Rick

            Brent FAVVREEE ??!!! !??!

          • Rick

            :)

  • http://Orlando Mark

    I did my part to insure #12 has a good year in ’11 by voting for Hillis in Madden #12. Now if everyone else does their job Lucas Oil Stadium here we come.

    • Rick

      Vote early, vote often LOL

      • iccyfan

        ARod is reportedly disappointed with his semi-final loss to Peyton Hillis; if he “blames” Packer fans for his loss and forces a trade to a team where the fans will be supportive of all his endeavors, I’m blaming you two! ;)

        Postscript: Every Packer fan site I’ve visited in the past two weeks has a thread devoted to defeating the Madden Jinx. I’m a superstitious fan with my own personal quirks, but the wide-spread mania is kinda funny…

  • Larry

    Kolb is seasoned, familar with the WC and has all the tools to excel. I’m thinking Minnesota sees their window closing and jumps in. Seattle’s building to a degree, I’m surprised that Whitehurst hasn’t been given more of a chance given the price paid for him.

    Are we sure Cleveland has found their guy? Let’s see whose wanting when the draft dust settles.

    • iccyfan

      Peter King or somebody “in the know” opined recently there are ten teams who are or should be in the market for a QB – there will definitely be strong interest in Kevin Kolb (and probably Vince Young)! Other pundits have opined that due to the labor situation, a new record should be set with seven or even eight QB’s drafted in the first three rounds. Eight rookie QB’s with no contact allowed, no rookie TC’s, no OTA’s, possibly a shortened or no TC – what a mess! It’s always a great time to be a Packer fan, but never better than now…

    • Rick

      Kolb to Minnesota makes the most sense. As you said their window is closing.

      I personally love Colt McCoy and his throwing ability. A little raw but Holmgren is a patient teaching coach ( look at Brett) and will get the best out Colt.

      Seattle’s success I think derailed them somewhat. If they were not so in it at the end the could have played some of their depth to see what they had. The dangers of getting in the playoffs at 7-9 I guess.

  • Larry

    Packers schedule really only has 3 games against teams potentially changing QB’s. Minny twice is a given and Carolina is probable. Denver has Orton and Tebow. They may draft a guy but unless both of these guys fail badly I think the rookie will sit and learn at the feet of Elway.

    Good and experienced QB’s abound on this schedule. Brees, M. Ryan, Rivers and E. Manning and we’ll get to see second/third year in their system guys Bradford, Freeman, Stafford twice and Cutler from Chicago. All in all the QB’s we face will have some years in the their systems.

    I’m sure Woodson, Williams and Shields would love to take on the newbe’s but it doesn’t appear they get the chance.

    • Rick

      I hope the D stays frisky against the pass.

      GB scores and gets in front and then takes away the run on defense. That really seemed to sum up last years success.

  • Rick

    Two days to go til draft……

    End of second round pick #64. GB selects

    a) Titus Young, WR/KR Boise State
    b) Colin Kaepernick, QB Nevada
    c) Sam Acho, OLB Texas
    d) Chimdi Chekwa, CB Ohio State
    e) Franklin Orlando, OT/OG Miami
    f) Christian Ballard, DE Iowa

    • iccyfan

      I wish…
      Round 1 begins 4/28…
      Blockhead70 appears touting his two-round draft prognostication success on 4/30…

      • Rick

        HAHAHA.

        Oops. I know draft is next week but I thought we said Thr we post our draft picks. My bag.
        I should really proof read better before I post.

  • Larry

    Wrong week?

    • Rick

      Try #2

      Two days to go til show your draft……

      End of second round pick #64. GB selects

      a) Titus Young, WR/KR Boise State
      b) Colin Kaepernick, QB Nevada
      c) Sam Acho, OLB Texas
      d) Chimdi Chekwa, CB Ohio State
      e) Franklin Orlando, OT/OG Miami
      f) Christian Ballard, DE Iowa

      My early leaning is Christian Ballard.

  • Larry

    I missed the memo…guess I’ll come up with some draft picks, keeping of course my first two. No use compounding 2 wrong picks with two more wrong picks. I read recently that a run of QB’s is possible, as many as 6 in the first round. I hope that true…Von Miller slides to 32…YES!

    • Rick

      I will happily drink that koolaid.

  • http://Orlando Mark

    Looks like a good schedule with the bye in the middle and we have an advantage with NO at home week one. For me the three toughest games are the Chargers, Giants and Detroit(don’t laugh) Thanksgivings day.

  • http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

    Hi, guys, I’m baaaack! No mtr home Rick, just the family sedan this time to look at some property. Wife wants to go, I don’t; so we probably will.
    Anyway, I’ll need some catching up. At this point I’m still holding at trade down unless there is a No. 3 rated (on TT’s board which we have no idea who) OLB or CB unexpectedly dropped down to 32. I don’t see him going OT or DE there with the top 1st rnders already gone.
    My belief is that there will be someone out there that will want to move up to 32 for a QB that is still worthy left which we would not go for.

  • Larry

    So what do you call LarryTex if he’s not in Texas….

    LarryEX. , Cymbals please!

    • Steve Cheez

      How ’bout LarryOK, or LarryMiss, or even LarryLouise?

    • Rick

      Bum dum bump!!

      • ScottS

        LarryLeft?

  • http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

    Larry, you deserve the cymbals – Steve, thats cheezy! Rick, what the heck is “Bum dum bump”? At any rate y’all know its great to be back home in extended Packerland.

    • Rick

      Drum rim shot

  • JeffN

    Good article especially point number 1 above. I think the most we get for Barnett is a 4th rounder. If we get a 3rd then jump all over that.

    • http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

      If Barnett were available for a third to me, I’d take it. Same with Jenkins. What we are really discussing is not whether we want both of them or not, its at what price. Since TT has been here we’ve let the two OGs go, a DE, and I’m not sure about the FS, oh, add the Kicker to the list. I guess the guards hurt us the most in the short term, but he does not seem to want to try to keep people for less than their $$ on their contract when the big bucks come due. Must not feel they would be giving their all after the $$ cut. On the other hand we’ve never been the champs either. We’ll see if TEAM means anything anymore – I doubt it.

  • Larry

    Barnett is also older or near 30 and been injured the last couple of year. This is typical TT all the way. Same with Jenkins and as the roster gets harder and harder to make, some pretty good young players are going to get cut. I recently read that Brad Jones could slide inside as well. That makes alot of sense given Zombo/Walden and the OLB everyone is clamoring for.

    The numbers game is working against GB…good players are going to get cut/traded ot unsigned to make room for the next wave.

    • http://Orlando Mark

      Good point Larry. SB players are always overvalued. If TT is ever going to get a good price for some guys that are going to have a hard time starting(or even making the roster) the time is now.

  • Mel E Mel

    Jolly situation really binds the Pack, making TT have to address DE early in the draft. Please let Daryn College go there has to be better available. I believe he only was up to snuff in camp because Bulaga was going to take his job. Cant afford chinks in the armor on the OLine with the franchise back there. Oline, 1 quality defensive end and a someone who can handle returns. I would like to see Ayers at #32, Not Houston or Reed. Neither Houston or Reed showed up in big games last year. Ayers had a huge game on the road vs Texas.
    The football gods gave us a gift VS the AFC west not one those teams is any good. KC is loud but how loud will they be down 21-0? San Diego cant stop anyone and Rivers will never outrun Matthews. The Atl game will be tough because they got humiliated. MN is done, Chicago is old on D, Detroit is the new threat. TT has to build a dominant OL to neutralize the Suh and the Silver Rush. GO PACK

  • Larry

    I read an article this morning on the draft class QB’s. At the end was, what I believe, the most flattering compliment paid to TT.

    The best time to take a QB is when you don’t need one. That’s what makes guys like TT so good!

    This seems to be Ted’s approach to every position. We’d all agree that if GB lined up with its finishing team plus IR less FA losses we’d be a playoff team. There isn’t a GLARING hole. That’s why TT will continue with the BPA. Give the best athlete available the chance and TIME to improve the roster at whatever position is available. How smart does drafting Mike Neal look now that Jenkins (FA) and Jolly won’t be back!!!

    • Rick

      Neal pick was a smart one. I like the idea of reloading the team. TT knew which way GB was leaning on Jenkins, and had to assume the worse on Jolly. Wilson in the 5th ,Wynn in the 7th , and Neal in the 2nd were good depth picks.

  • Rick

    Now that we have another thread going how about we post our GB mock picks here so we don’t thread jack?

  • Larry

    I’ll post here later this afternoon. I’ve got a couple of players in for interviews.

    • Rick

      LOL

  • Larry

    Here we go… RD PICK NAME POS SCHOOL

    1 32 Gabe Carimi tackle Wisc
    2 64 Ryan Williams rb Vir. Tech
    3 96 Brooks Reed olb Arizona
    4 129 Jerry Powe def. tackle Miss
    4 131 Cortex Allen cb Citadel
    5 163 Byron Maxwell cb Clemson
    6 197 Evan Royster rb Penn State
    7 204 Tori Gurley wr South carolina
    7 233 Zane Taylor tackle Utah

    Ignored safety, ILB,TE, guard, FB, and QB. Royster moves to FB…William Henderson mode…Zane Taylor isn’t going to be there at 233 but I’m hoping, Carimi starts as LG or RT with Baluga going to LG.

    Bring it on Rick!

    • Rick

      Love the picks. Royster is a strong possibilty. A hard working coachable young man.

  • Rick

    1st #32 Aaron Williams, CB/ST Texas
    2nd #64 Christian Ballard, DE Iowa
    3rd #96 Jordan Cameron, TE USC
    4th #129 Ian Williams, DT Notre Dame
    4th #131 Jah Reid, OT Central Florida
    5th #163 Tim Barnes, C Missouri
    6th #197 Henry Hynoski, FB Pittsburgh – jk that was for iccyfan :)
    Mistral Raymond, FS Southern Florida
    7th #204 Demarcus Van Dyke, CB Miami
    7th #233 Mr. Irrelevent is……… Chris Matthews, WR Kentucky

    • Rick

      Aaron Williams, adds CB depth and pushes Lee and others, a great ST pick as well.
      Ballard is a beast body for Dline depth.
      Cameron is a BPA guy in the draft and helps push Quarless and Crabtree. I think he may be a #2 TE for GB.
      Williams has great tape and would be an excellent depth pick.
      Jah Reid- Looks like a Sitton Jr
      Barnes- a great Big 12 Center that allows to GB future O line depth now
      Raymond- The next FS/ST like Peprah
      Van Dyke- Fast and from Miami. Remind you of a man named Shield?
      Chris Matthews- Looks like a white Donald Driver. A big body that goes over the middle and gets it done.

  • Larry

    1, 2, 3 more likely than mine..I need a run at QB to push Carimi past Indy and getting by Pburgh not likely. Williams may be there if LeShour goes 2nd. Reed is all over the board, we’d look if there at 3.

    I like Ballard at 2…I think we’ll get a chance for him. Cameron at 3 is ok but I think there are better options.

    We’re on record…lets see who else steps up.

    • http://jlworden1suddenlink.net LarryTex

      Too many unforseen possibilities above 32. A trade, either up or down.

  • Larry

    Rick, seems like we got mano y mano so far. I’m preparing my Roberto Duran “No mas!” as the draft unfolds.

    LarryTex is probably right with the trade at 32. Someone may want to jump in front of NE @ 33 especially if they want a tier 2 QB. I just hope we get future draft picks. Having 9 or more new bodies at camp with UFA’s and IR’s means walking papers for good young players.

    • Rick

      I think GB will have to draft at #32 but I think Colin Kaepernick may entice someone to take our #64 pick and grab him at the end of day two of the draft.