What makes a bust

by Larry

I just read my umteenth article on biggest QB busts of the draft, this one adding the latest, JeMarcus Russell and I started to think about why so many QB’s struggle in the pro game. Asked a different way, why so many mistakes are made drafting QB’s. Without a crack team to aid in the research, I formulated a few theories of my own. Here’s my thoughts.

On a typical college schedule of 12 to 14 games (including bowl games) only 8 to 10 games are against real competition. Most every major college team opens in September against various division 2, orphanages and historical doormats. Wins come easy, stats get inflated and everyone looks like a world beater and there’s 4 of these on the schedule, maybe more.

About 20-25 CB’s get drafted each year. Some times more, sometimes less. So the liklihood that a draftable college QB is actually throwing against a draftable CB is pretty remote…and against a pair of draftable CB’s on the same team…rarer still. Essentially the margin for error in college compared to pro is huge. HUGE! Herein lies the first problem…unless you can gage the level of competition how can you possibly gage the level of competency?

Next up…the speed of the game. Show me a QB whose completing passes under 3.5 seconds and you’ve got my interest. Under durress can he complete the throw.  Too many college passers use too much time to locate the open receiver.  That windows closed in the NFL.

Work ethic…biggest reason for a bust IMO!  First in/last out is real baby!

Bad team, changed system!  The very good QB’s go to the worst NFL teams.  I’m surprised that more drafted players don’t refuse to go to the teams that drafted them like Elway and Eli. Anyone think that Alex Smith might’ve had alot more success with GB.  How about David Carr with Pittsburgh.  Even Trent Dilfer won a SB with Baltimore…a good team with a consistent system makes a huge difference IMO.  I don’t think you could guarantee a similar result but I’m guessing you wouldn’t see “bust” next to the name.

The guy needs to learn the game…very few QB’s can be successful right out of college.  Aikman…nope.  Manning year 1…guess again.  Show a little patience…the signing bonus is already paid,   you may as well!

Lastly,  bring back NFL Europe…worked for Kurt Warner…might help Brady Quinn, Alex Smith, D. Carr, J. Clausen.. etc.

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  • iccyfan

    Interesting topic, though with the title I was hoping it’d be a little broader in scope. Not to hijack the thread with the first response, but it makes me angry when people label Justin Harrell a “bust”. I’ve never read anything that suggested Harrell had poor character or work ethic, nor that he lacked talent. He’s been de-railed by multiple injuries. Jamal Reynolds was a “bust” and Tony Mandarich a drug-induced fraud (= “bust”); I don’t see Harrell as being in the same category. JMHO…

    As for your QB theories, I don’t disagree with much of anything. I think much of it boils down to personal inner strength and character, with a heavy dose of luck (in the form of opportunity) thrown in. Troy Aikman and Peyton Manning got the crap kicked out of them the first year or two, until their teams improved around them via savvy personnel moves by management. David Carr and Alex Smith didn’t get “lucky” in that way. You really have to wonder how Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers would be positioned today if their draft positions had been exchanged five years ago!?! With what Rodgers went thru in replacing he who shall not be named, I tend to think he would have been successful whatever situation he ended up in, but you never know…

    • Rick

      Right now we have a college system that is taking advantage of athletes playing football. Notice I did not say football players. Those are rare individuals that might just make it in the NFL – maybe as a back up and maybe as a starter.

      As a college coach you need to win games. If you need to run an offense out of a shotgun to make up for a weakish O line you do it. Spread out the defenses by putting 3 or 4 WR on the field, you do it.
      Use the advantage of a now spread out defense to open up the field for a mobile QB and run him, you do it.
      The college game is not preparing players for the NFL. I can expound on the QBs that looked great in college both in pro and spread offenses and failed or succeeded. When it is all said and doen though the percentage rate of success and failure is about the same.

      The one thing I see is most of the successful were just plain better then most (T Aikman, P Manning, M Ryan) and have the drive to keep improving, or were solid players that got time with one offense and one set of coaches to hone and improve their skills (B Favre, A Rodgers, D Brees, P Rivers)

  • Rick

    Larry, you are correct. Great article.

  • snyz

    …and QB coaches, how much credit do they deserve?

    iccyfan, with all due respect, harrell can be left with favre in the dust, please.

    • iccyfan

      Harrell is still under contract and on the roster, so not yet. Your comment puzzles me. Johnny Jolly is no longer an option and the return of Jenkins is a long shot at this point. Why wouldn’t every Packer fan be hoping for Harrell to play, and play well, in 2011?

  • Larry

    snyz…good point. I’m just not sure anymore whose good at developing QB’s. MM certainly is but alot of others have had 1 or 2 round busts.

  • Rick

    Actaully Harrell having a great year and then leaving GB as a FA next year could get GB a pick in addition to his productivity.

  • Rick

    Actually…. edit button please 🙂

  • Rick

    BTW Jolly avoided jail. A sad truth that Houston’s crime rate is so high that it is better to force Jolly to drug counseling and treatment and a 5 year window to keep clean or else risk releasing a far more dangerous criminal out to make room. But that is the way the cards play out. I am sure that another suspension is in order from Goodell when ever a new CBA is back in place.

  • Kevin Roth

    We have a lot of Larrys on this site 🙂

    Great article, Larry!

  • Larry

    Thanks, first try..I’ll get better. Can’t imagine Jolly would be back but I’d sure like to trade him versus cut him…maybe Cincy, Cleve or ……OAKLAND!

  • Reid

    Most important at this level is the work ethic of the QB and their relationship with their receivers. I remember reading stories about how P. Manning and M. Harrison, etc. would go to games together to watch other teams and they would stay late and go to practice and games early to work on timing, accuracy, and precision of their routes. It comes down to what I tell my kids about sports they are competing in…….if all you do is go to organized practice and put in the same amount of practice time and reps as everyone else, how can you expect to be better than them?

    • Rick

      Reid, great statement

      A wiseman once said that “Ambition is the greatest slave maker.” Someone possesed by drive can accomplish many things.
      We have seen Driver come from a 7th round camp body to one of the top WR in GB history.

      Aaron Kampman a 5th round depth guy became a pro bowler.

      Aaron Rodgers had to suffer through an almost 6 hour wait to be drafted on day one. He stayed focused and really threw himself at running the scout team. He was the best since Hasselback was with the team.

  • dave76

    Good article Larry. IMO, there are 3 areas that can make a player a bust.

    1. The # selection in the draft, and the contract worth they sign before ever stepping on a field. It seems to me that if a top pick is a bust, it is also has potential to be a huge financial impact that can effect a teams salary cap for several years.

    2. Can the player live up to the media hype ( Cam this year) or the team expectations of being an impact player? They will be under the microscope of most media and NFL fans.

    3. Does the player adjust and learn to play the game at a more competitive level in the faster and stronger NFL? Playing at Wisconsin and in the NFL are two different games, just ask Ron Dayne. This also is where players must have great work ethics to have a good career.

    I probably missed some points, but these 3 come to mind often when I think of ” Bust”.

    • Rick

      Great post dave

  • Packer’s Advocate

    I won’t have a mock draft to share but I know what I’d like to see happen. If Von Miller is as advertised, I hope he falls out of the top 10 (as some teams may target QB’s) and then TT goes up and gets him. If he can beat his one-on-one’s consistantly, then he and CMIII would be like having two extra players on defense. They could play a 38 defense on 3rd and long w/Raji in the middle. Caper’s would put something awesome together, I’d imagine. How about that 3 nose tackle nickle??? And give Greene a player and he’ll give you a stud, a stud and then you’ll get a beast!! (ex: CMIII) All that said, this has about 1% chance in hell of happening.

  • Mel e Mel

    Al makes and excellent point about being drafted by the right team. Detroit had Barry Sanders and could not do anything. Matt Millen could have drafted world beaters but they were nothing but a sinking ship. TT drafted Raji,and Matthews in 09, with the idea that they were good fits for Capers system. There is a an element of luck however, real luck is when preparation meets opportunity. Randy Moss fell into the Vikings lap, did they ever win anything??? No because they are one hit wonders. TT is well prepared even in the midst of last years injuries.

    • Rick

      I see some coaching staffs teach well such as GB while others don’t like Shanahan in Denver and Washington.

      Truthfully MM was a hair pulling dunce of a head coach on game days early but he has improved on that with experience. He always could teach though and I think that is the reason TT hired him so he could handle the influx of younger talent that would be coming in. Add to that, Capers has shown himself as a great DC but a teacher himself.

      Why MM is a teacher goes back to his time New Orleans. He ran into a situation where it was week 8 in the season and he asked the back up QB and the 3rd string a question and they stalled. He asked why they did not know the answer and the admitted that they had been just nodding yes that they understood all through the 4 game preseason and 8 weeks of regular football. So after that he asked some of the QBs he had worked with over the years and was shocked to find out how many of them did not understand the basics properly. He decided to correct that.

      That is why he runs a QB only camp here in GB where they practice the basics. Such as how to come out of center and proper stride for 3 and 5 step drops. Proper throw spots on routes, etc.

      Not to be weird but GB was going to draft Rex Grossman in 2003, til the Bears moved ahead one spot and grabbed him.
      Can you imagine if Rex had had a coach run him through this kind of camp a few years? He may have learned to not fumble coming out of center and all that.

      Aaron Rodgers and Matt Flynn are blessed that this is a teaching kind of staff that they have.

  • Larry

    You got that right Rick

  • About half of the top rated QBs coming out this year (what, about 8 or so?) have not played under center. I constantly hear how few, if any, are NFL start ready because of it. Oh, some will be plugged in, but chances are they will not be successful because of team position in the draft (weak team, other team needs), etc. What does this tell me?
    Personally, unless I know nothing about QB development (absolute possibility) I would take Harrell over half of them because he came from the same kind of college system, can throw the ball, and has the learning experience they need behind him. We have always been a QB school – what cred did Flynn have when he came in and now several here, all of a sudden, think he is worth a 2 or at least 3 in a trade. Why? I like Flynn, and do not give up on Harrell so quickly.

    • On another subject the Bearse have a tough schedule start and will be chasing us next year. I like our finish too – an indoor team and the Bearse at Lambeau, sweet.

      • Rick

        The Bears won the division and are scheduled accordingly. GB has a not so easy schedule as well but I like the way the travel and timing works out.

    • Rick

      I agree that Graham has an inside track because of no QB camp for any draft pick we aquire.

  • iccyfan

    2011 “Draft Choices” thread seems to be disabled so I’ll play along with Rick & Larry here. I think trying to predict TT is a fool’s errand every year, but never moreso that this year with the labor unrest, unsettled QB draft and last pick. Even so, I’ll present my wish list:

    1) Akeem Ayers – OLB;
    2) Leonard Hankerson – WR, though I really hope Greg Little will be the choice to replace JJ;
    3) Kendall Hunter – RB;
    4a) Lawrence Guy – DE;
    4b) Willie Smith – OT; raw East Carolina prospect has time to learn behind Clifton;
    5) Jason Pinkston – OG;
    6) Alex Henery – K/P; insert Charles Clay TE / FB if TT expects Crosby to resign
    7a) Ryan Jones – CB;
    7b) Joshua Portis – QB

    • Rick

      Interesting choices iccy. I really like your thought process on these.

      Portis is especially an interesting idea as a developmental QB.

      He will probably be a training camp arm most places. A little birdy is telling me that when the CBA is set probably he will be a UDFA of the Dolphins.

      • iccyfan

        I’ve read quite a bit about Portis on another site. It’s really hard to reconcile the maturity his quotes seem to indicate with the decisions he made as a youngster; he sounds like Cam Newton lite! I’m all about redemption stories and we have the staff (MM & Tom Clements) and squad (Rodgers) to mold him. How many draft-worthy QB’s did freaking Urban Meyer have at Florida anyway? Jeez…

        They guy I’m intrigued by is Willie Smith; with Ted & Mike having patience to develop players rather than thrusting them into the lineup too early, this is the kind of pick I’m hoping to see.
        I hated Kendall Hunter while he was an OSU Cowboy, which explains why I’d like to see him as a Packer.

        The problem with my draft is I’m predicated by what I see as need, while Ted’s BPA at all times. Hankerson, Baldwin and Little are replacements for James Jones. Hunter replaces Brandon Jackson. Lawrence Guy replaces Jenkins / Jolly. Pinkston replaces Colledge. Henery replaces Crosby. Ted doesn’t think like me, which is a great thing for the Packers!

        I really wanted to work in a full-back, Marecic or Hynoski, to replace Quinn Johnson & Korey Hall. If we could edit, I’d put them as secondary fifth round choices should Pink be gone…

        • Rick

          Duly noted on the FB. GB make trade down and get extra picks as well, so we may have and extra 5th or 6th rounder to grab one of those guys.

  • Rick

    With less then one week to go Dart 2 of first two rounds of NFL draft

    Round 1
    1. Carolina (2-14) Cam Newton, QB Auburn
    2. Denver (4-12) Marcell Dareus, NT/DT Alabama
    3. Buffalo (4-12) Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri
    4. Cincinnati (4-12) AJ Green, WR Georgia
    5. Arizona (5-11) Von Miller, DE/OLB Texas A&M
    6. Cleveland (5-11) Nick Fairly, DT Auburn
    7. San Francisco (6-10) Robert Quinn, DE/OLB North Carolina
    8. Tennessee (6-10) DaQuan Bowers, DE Clemson
    9. Dallas (6-10) Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
    10. Washington (6-10) Julio Jones, WR Alabama
    11. Houston (6-10) Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska
    12. Minnesota (6-10) Tyron Smith, OT USC
    13. Detroit (6-10) Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College
    14. St. Louis (7-9) Corey Liguet, DT Illinois
    15. Miami (7-9) Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
    16. Jacksonville (8-8) Cameron Jordan, DE California
    17. New England – from Oakland (8-8) J.J. Watt, DE/DT Wisconsin
    18. San Diego (9-7) Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB Purdue
    19. New York Giants (10-6) Aldon Smith, DE/OLB Missouri
    20. Tampa Bay (10-6) Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa
    21. Kansas City* (10-6) Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin
    22. Indianapolis* (10-6) Nate Soldier, OT Colorado
    23. Philadelphia* (10-6) Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi State
    24. New Orleans* (11-5) Cameron Heyward, DE/DT Ohio State
    25. Seattle* (7-9) Brandon Harris, CB Miami
    26. Baltimore* (12-4) Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado
    27. Atlanta* (13-3) Torrey Smith, WR Maryland
    28. New England* (14-2) Mike Pouncey, OG Florida
    29. Chicago* (11-5) Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Temple
    30. New York Jets* (11-5) Akeem Ayers, OLB UCLA
    31. Pittsburgh* (12-4) Phil Taylor, DT Baylor
    32. Green Bay* (10-6) Aaron Williams, CB/ST Texas
    I really believe that NE will look to trade down and will do so. The picks I am making assume that Belichik does use his picks. Aaron Williams is the #30 value player on my big board and he is a CB/ Nickel/ ST ace – he blocked 4 punts and has numerous ST tackles. It is because there is more need at CB for depth than Stephen Paea for D line depth that I feel the pick is another Williams for Green Bay.

    Round 2
    1. New England – from Carolina (2-14) Justin Houston, OLB Georgia
    2. Buffalo (4-12) Stephen Paea, DT Oregon State
    3. Cincinnati (4-12) Mikel Leshore, RB Illinois
    4. Denver (4-12) Jabaal Sheard, DE/OLB Pittsburgh
    5. Cleveland (5-11) Martez Wilson, ILB Illinois
    6. Arizona (5-11) Jake Locker, QB Washington
    7. Tennessee (6-10) Steve Wisniewski, C/G Penn State
    8. Dallas (6-10) Ras-I Dowling, CB Virginia
    9. Washington (6-10) Christian Ponder, QB Florida State
    10. Houston (6-10) Brooks Reed, OLB Arizona
    11. Minnesota (6-10) Ryan Mallet, QB Arkansas
    12. Detroit (6-10) Rahim Moore, S UCLA
    13. San Francisco (6-10) Randall Cobb, WR Kentucky
    14. Denver – from Miami (7-9) Kyle Rudolph, TE Notre Dame
    15. St. Louis (7-9) Marcus Cannon, OT/G TCU
    16. Oakland (8-8) Danny Watkins, OL Baylor
    17. Jacksonville (8-8) Andy Dalton, QB TCU
    18. San Diego (9-7) Leonard Hankerson, WR Miami
    19. Tampa Bay (10-6) Ryan Williams, RB Viginia Tech
    20. New York Giants (10-6) James Carpenter, OT Alabama
    21. Indianapolis* (10-6) DeMarco Murray, RB Oklahoma
    22. Philadelphia* (10-6) Rodney Hudson, OG/C Florida State
    23. Kansas City* (10-6) Jon Baldwin, WR Pittsburgh
    24. New Orleans* (11-5) Marvin Austin, DT North Carolina
    25. Seattle* (7-9) Benjamin Ijalana, OG Villanova
    26. Baltimore* (12-4) Jerrel Jernigan, WR/KR/PR Troy
    27. Atlanta* (13-3) DeAndre McDaniel, S Clemson
    28. New England* (14-2) Davon House, CB New Mexico
    29. San Diego – from New York Jets*(11-5)Jurrel Casey, DT/DE/NT USC
    30. Chicago* (11-5) Drake Nevis, DT LSU
    31. Pittsburgh* (12-4) Curtis Brown, CB Texas
    32. Green Bay* (10-6) Christian Ballard, DE Iowa
    I really believe the GB will trade out of the #64 pick. Strong indications are some team will move up and take Colin Kaepernick just before the end of day two of the draft. Of course Ted Thompson may decide the development of a high quality back up to challenge Flynn as #2 or replace Flynn if lost to FA next year is the best choice and take Colin for Green Bay.

  • Packer’s Advocate

    Rick, last year I proposed a little contest similar to your proposal but more for dumb-shits like me. It didn’t grow legs though. It was a little more generic than the in-depth lengths you go to. Basically, it was making the picks for each round in catagories. Couple points if your pick landed in the offensive or defensive side of the ball. Five(?) points if you picked the correct position group. DL, LB & DB on D. OL, QB/WR, and TE/RB on O. Extra bonus points if you guessed the trade. Then again, I challenged some of the anti-TT/MM guys, we need FA’s guys, etc. guys, to design a GM version of a fantasy football league. Then in the confines of the salary cap and everything else that goes with it, they could design their teams.

    • Rick

      Sounds sort of like a draft game I was in a long time ago. About 12 years ago when fantasy baseball took off one of the guys I used to draftnik with had a pick the player game. You didn’t pick the team you picked which spot the players would be drafted in. 5 for correct and 1 pt for each pick away, it was cool but by round 3 the math was maddening. Some guy from Jersey crushed everybody. He had like 8 4th rounders perfect.

    • Rick

      Let me ask you this PA. I am interested in seeing whom you would pick.

      If you are TT and the draft picks are exactly what I typed out to #31, who would you pick at #32 that is left and why?

  • Rick

    Just found this on a guys blog about what he saw on Gruden’s ESPN QB show…

    After watching this I can conclude a few things: Cam Newton is a half an idiot but has a cannon, Ryan Mallet is not as much of a stoner as I’d thought but it was probably only 1pm in this video, Blaine Gabbert is a bitch and a little prick, Jake Locker and Andy Dalton are whatever.

    That is so frickin hilarious. I thought the same dang thing. Cam is a gifted athlete but he is limited in his mental offensive playbook. I have seen this show before with Rick Mirer many years before. Gabbert is a douche but with a year two will be good. Locker has an AMAZING mental offesive playbook but he keeps trying to be a one man team. Imagine a young Brett Favre big arm scrambler but he gets hurt and misses games. Dalton was okay but he NEVER played against anything better than the Boise State and Wisconsin defenders in the last two years.
    Dalton is the greatest case maker for what Larry said at the beginning of the post, there is not a lot of QBs going up against top quality defenders to really see what they can do.

    • iccyfan

      Interesting take on the Grudden FFCA Show. ESPN2 ran it multiple times last night and I caught bits and pieces, basically saw all the interviews except for Ryan Mallett. My take-away was different than yours (and your blogger). I thought Gabbert was very impressive; Gruden was trying to get under his skin (Peyton Manning working his butt off – Blaine Gabbert coasting) and BG didn’t fall for it; simply answered as best he could. I found the Newton interview uncomfortable, especially the part about the ad-lib last-second TD versus Oregon – talk about a guy who just doesn’t “get it”! After watching that interview and his “chalkboard session”, I’ll really be surprised if he goes in the top five. I didn’t need to see this show to root hard for Jake Locker; his journey is well-chronicled and unless he ends up a Viking, I hope he proves the doubters wrong. Andy Dalton is simply a winner. Throw in Mallett and the Nevada kid, and this class might rival the ’83 QB draft; with my skills at prognostication, it’ll most likely mimic 1999…

      • Rick

        Cam and Mallett were scary picks after watching that show. Newton is this years Akili Smith, and Mallet is the new drunk Griese.

        Gabbert was a douche and like I said if he gets two years to learn how to come out of center he will be amazing.

        Locker has great mentals but makes poor throws. He could be the next gun slinger Brett Favre if he stays healthy and learns or Rex Grossman if he does not.

        Dalton is an unknown. I see him as a Kyle Orton solid arm from a spread offense. Give him a couple years and he will be fine I think. Problem is Orton was a6th rounder.

        If you are going to draft a spread offense developmental QB that would be Kaepernick in the end of the 2nd beginning of the 3rd. He can go to a decent team and learn for a few years and become a possible future starter or quality back up.

    • Packer’s Advocate

      GM’s can’t afford to pick players in the 1st round that won’t start/or might bust. The QB’s this year need work, so they’ll fall to the 2nd round where the GM’s won’t get egg on their face should their pick not develop. I was hoping they’d have graded out better this year so a better player would have fell to the Pack!!! The teams needing QB’s will pick them in the 2nd round and probably in their regular spot. May allow a couple players you might not expect to fall to the Pack at 64 when the QB run starts early in the 2nd.

      • Rick


    • iccyfan

      And another thing:

      Your last sentence drives me nuts. Who did Ben Roethlisberger face while he was at Miami of Ohio? His marquee game in his final season was against the Iowa Hawkeyes and he was awful. Even so, personality not considered, you have to count him as a very successful professional QB. From Joe Flacco to Dave Krieg to Phil Simms, small school QB’s can play! Compared to these guys, Andy Dalton has faced a veritable “murderer’s row”…

      • Rick

        Ben played a pro style out from under center offense. He has a compact powerful thowing motion. While not mobile he was big enough to laugh of the small school defenders trying to bring him down and complete at almost 70% in college. That was not a need to review the tape against the CBs. Though he did play against the best drafted defenders from his conference.

        Joe Flacco played against small school as well. He was a worry in being drafted because of it but he played in a from behind center prostyle offense and was versed in a WC offense and also had a great mental offense playbook and completed almost 70% of his passes.

        Andy Dalton won and completed almost 70% of his passes. He however was in a shotgun for almost 92% of all plays. Of the remaining 8% almost all were victory formation and goal line. He has minimal tape against draftable defensive players. He does not seem to look off defenders very well ( ala Mark Snchez) and has a hitch in his release.

      • Rick

        Locker played against a fairly weak PAC 10 and completed only about 50% of his passes. The only good thing for me is that he knows the playbook inside and out, is not a dummy, is not afraid to hit or be hit so he will stay in to the final second, has a winner gritty mentality and completes almost 70% when rolled out of the pocket. He finds people when the play breaks down and is unafraid to gun it by defenders. It sounds alot like our old Mississippi boy doesn’t he. But does he Favre or Grossman.

        With what GB has done with Rodgers and Flynn if he was to be grabbed by us he would be a starter in year 2 or 3 for almost any team. Other than the GB, Patriots and the Browns I am unsure where he will get that coaching.

  • Packer’s Advocate

    You know Rick, there’s a reason why the game I proposed is only specific to positions or to O and D. That’s about as good as it gets for me.

    Let’s see…… we’re young and deep. Adding a Von Miller opposite CMIII makes our D 3-7 points better just like adding Finley will make our O 3-7 points better. Quality vs. quantity, this year anyway. That’s my dream senerio. Or trade it. Guranteed to improve the pick 10-15 spots along w/an extra pick for next year.

    My guess would have been Sherrod, OT but you have him gone in your list. So I’ll guesstimate Reed, OLB. Big motor opposite CMIII. Only impact spot on the team for this year that is open for a player. CB,OT, and OLB are all good options especially if a good one falls or any position a stud falls, reguardless. Anyway, here was my attempt.

    • Rick

      So I would be picking a D players in round 1 and round 2 for GB, correct? Also I say CB as #1 and DE as #2 pick.

      So if a D player was selected in both spots but not at the correct position then 5 points for each for a total of ten instead of 20 for perfect, correct?

      • Packer’s Advocate

        That’s basically it. Was just a thought on my part from last year. Point system could use some thought put into it and it could be as layered as a person wanted. For someone like me, points for O or D and points for position group is pretty good. But for others, extra points for position inside of position groups and even more points for exact player are options. Some of you have the ability to do a pretty good job picking all seven rounds for all the teams….. I’d have my hands full w/just the Pack’s picks.

  • Larry

    I think this team is beyond the “early draft picks start” scenario. Baluga played extensively because of injury. Bigby was PUP so Burnett started. Our early picks may not start this year but that does not mean they’re “busts”..it means the team is deep–REALLY DEEP. TT seems to pick a year or 2 out…forecasting a FA loss or a decline of talent. Any CB picked is a dime at best behind Williams, Woody and Shields. OT is going to watch Cliffy and Baluga. DT has to beat out Neal and Pickett to start..but he’ll probably plays 15 snaps a game spelling the tackles.

    Maybe a OLB beats out Jones, Zombo and Walden but maybe not.

    From this class and at 32/64/96 etc…unless we get a good LG, I don’t see a starter..but we’ll see in 3/4/5 days.

    • Rick

      True a rookie Guard might get a chance to compete and start. I think OLB would be tough to break in to a starters role without injury.

  • Rick

    Upon further thought PA to your idea of second round draft grades(or lower) while I agree- and show many in the 2nd round of my mock draft- the rules may be a changing.

    If the owners and GMs really think there will be a rookie salary adjustment in the 1st round then QB bust guarantee money is not the issue and because of skill position bonus they would move into the 1st round on many draft boards. That could give us 4 1st round max QBs drafted. Newton, Gabbert, Locker, and I lean Ponder as the 4th Qb taken. I still say nay and still like my mock but if they go early I don’t see more than 4.

  • Rick

    Bang the drum slowly guys. This may go to September now. The owners need to make the 90% of players that live paycheck to paycheck fall out of step with the top group in order to win or the NLRB will have to step in and over rule the courts decision that the decertification was a sham.

    Dang, I wish she would have held her ruling until after the draft. The players will feel like they can force to owners to take the last CBA deal now. Meanwhile the owners will have to break the union/trade organization now or they will never get another chance. Because with drafting and no contracts being offered or trades for players it becomes a “harmful” situation a sought for in the two main anti-trust charges that Brady and Manning filed. That is triple damage amounts. The owners can’t back out now they will have to burn it down to win it.

    Well football fans we are screwed….

    • iccyfan

      “As to argument of “irreparable harm”, Judge Nelson clearly agreed with the Players”

      I guess you’ve got to consider context, but what’s stopping these players from using their college educations to find a job in the real world with the rest of us? Playing in the NFL for a salary beyond what most of us can imagine is a privilege, not a right…

  • Larry

    There may be some positives out of this. Draft day trading? The start of FA? Mini camps for rookies? I’m just not sure where this will go or when. I realize the NFL controls the “league year” and failure to officially start the clock means we’ll get the draft and not much else but this could be the spark!

  • I don’t get the concern for greater profits for the owners. It’s not likely we’ll see an improved product. Like a minor league when everyone concedes the college game isn’t that great for preparing QB’s and others to make the jump to the pros as Al said in the opener. No one would ask a hollywood star to take less so his studio would make a bigger profit. A few ownerships, like the Packers and Steelers, are great but most of them suck.

    • Rick

      I disagree about product quality Mark.

      As a town owned team I approach this as a fan/owner. I feel most of us cheer and support the team year after year, not a particular player. I feel the owners were to greedy early on in the 80s and 90s and it caught up to them.

      I heard this on the radio today. If you look at the strength of union and quality of game you will see that the most powerful players union is baseball. The is so much inequity in baseball that almost half the teams have no real shot at winning the world series.

      In football there is the weakest union and a forced equality that means almost any team has a shot to be competitive and win it all. The Packers are small market without an even playing field there would be no competitive team from here. We can’t out hustle Dallas and New York for dollars.

      NHL used to be like baseball and it almost killed the game. Now the union has been cracked and a much better equality achieved, the game has increased in quality and is actually gaining in fans and viewership.

      I read the Opinion Editorial Goodell wrote in the Wall Street Journal. It was a little chicken littlish but I can see the player greed shifting the game that way. Mark I fear for a loss of competition in small markets if the players achieve a complete FA status.

      • Rick, you make a strong case.

  • Mel E Mel

    We can cross Justin Houston off the list. He tested positive for weed at the combine. What a maroon.

  • No “developmental” at 32, must be immediate contributor (where else but DE or OG?). You all have confirmed my belief that Harrell is better candidate for success than half the QBs going this year. Still sticking with trade down unless a top 10 miracle drops ala Arod.

    • iccyfan

      As I try to reconcile all the information at hand, I’m becoming convinced a trade-up is in the offing. We have a 53 man roster, 15 on injured reserve, 9 on the practice squad and only 12 free agents, some of whom are bound to return. We simply don’t have room for nine new draft picks (and the inevitable two UDFA gems Ted always unearths). It’s a nice dilemma to have….

  • Larry

    I watched the Parcells draft special last night…I heard 35 out of 60 highly drafted QB’s have been disappointments. Worse than Vegas odds!

  • Larry

    Rick, just for grins…keep track of your highest rated player at GB’s pick each round whether GB takes them or not…let’s see how close they really get to BPA at least according to Rick.

    • If this draft didn’t have the lockout I would have expected so many trades from TT that Rick would have a hard time making any sense of the BPA. As it is you have to figure a boring, by the numbers draft board. Which kind of bites.

    • Rick


  • 4205

    You can call Goodell’s letter chicken little, but it is real. Without a collective bargaining situation, the owners can’t talk to each other about any min / max compensation issues, fix prices, set salary caps, agree to profit sharing, etc. Labor law is clear – those and most any other agreements between competitors are seen as collusion and prohibited. About the only thing they can do is agree to a schedule of games, but can’t restrict practice days, join together for health care, etc.

    Many of the teams could move together as long as they aren’t meeting to set prices, restrict competition, etc (i.e., one team can set a ticket price and all the rest can match, but they can’t agree on a schedule). But if one team decides to do it their way, there is nothing the other teams can do to prevent it – except drop them from the schedule.

    I’m waiting for each club to assert all contracts signed through collective bargaining are null and void because of the union involvement which no longer exists and other related clauses. At that point, the rich get richer (the basis for the 10 players that filed the suit) and the backups go to minimum wage (or a lot closer to it than minimum salaries prior to the dissolution of the union).

  • Larry

    I’m not sure how this works out…in pure speculation I would suggest the following points.

    1. A contract is a contract. A player under contract remains that way. The player contracts are between the player and the team. Any given provision that falls astray due to the dissolving of the union does NOT void the entire contract.

    2. To the extent that an unsigned player wishes to sign a contract with a team..he can do so. THIS ASSUMES THAT BOTH THE PLAYER AND TEAM WISH TO ENTER INTO A CONTRACT AND ARE ABLE TO DO SO (teams may not be able to sign players because of contracts with the league) . At this point it appears that neither sides wishes to do this. I view this like crossing a picket line. Anyone can do it but few do. (Only Oakland would have the balls to challenge the league IMO, given they’ve sued the league in the past)

    3. Contracts can be amended by collective bargaining with each side agreeing to amend language, terms etc…any FA contract signed which runs afoul of the “NEW” CBA whenever that happens would be amended to comply…because both sides would have agreed in negotiation to amend it. But if the basic terms of the contract remain consistant with the new CBA, those terms would be binding. Laws change points of contract all the time..it doesn’t void the entire contract.

    Is anyone going to sign..unlikely that either the teams or players will break rank. Just a thought

    • Rick

      1) Only if there is a NFL and a NFLPA. All contracts are approved by both entities. The dissolution of the NFLPA can make it a little sticky because the NFL league policy is to only hire NFLPA players to avoid the scab rules. That can be changed but it is awkward.

      2) The teams can only sign players when the league has agreed to rules so all teams have the same rules. The destruction of the CBA is what freezes the teams.

      Actually GB is the ONLY TEAM that could sue the players. the NFLPA and the ownership. They have full financial disclosure, follow league rules, and will suffer harm from this both ways.

      3) You make sense but are incorrect. As the NFL vs. Williams shows, league and contract rules are NOT adjusted by point of law changes or reviews. It has been almost 3 years since the testing positive case and after the 8th circuit was invloved finally there maybe suspensions for a 4 game issue in 2008.

      Regarding your last line. No team will sign anyone without rules in place. See #2

  • Packer’s Advocate

    Why isn’t the NFL one entity/company, operating in many states the same as UPS and many other companies. According to the ruling, UPS should be broken up along w/any other company operating in more than 1 state.

    • Rick

      The issue is monopoly. UPS has Fed Ex and other shipping companies. The NFL has 32 franchise owners that work together to set competition, salary, employee pricing. That collusion and lack of competition is why they need a stay from congress concerning monopoly laws, just like Major league baseball does.

      My issue is the slowness of the NLRB to step in and make a ruling on the decertification of the NFLPA. If a timely review was to be made most of this would be avoided. You do realize that once the board meets ALL THIS CAN CHANGE??

      The NLRB could rule that the decertifiaction was a sham. Thus the Nelson ruling is vacated. The last offer from the Owners in March in front of the federal mediator goes into effect and the world shifts again. Or if they say it was okay then all this goes forward as Nelson ruled. Also Doty still has to rule as to the financial penalty against the NFL for setting up the TV contracts to screw the players. That is a $4 billion contract.

      As I said the owners might have to burn it all down to stay in control. No NFL means no players and no player’ salaries.

      A percentage of 0 is 0.

      • Packer’s Advocate

        With you having said that, the NFL isn’t stopping anybody from forming a new league. It’s been done/tried before, AFL/USFL.

        • Rick

          True but until there is an alternate league and collusion among teams for equity and competitive balance ends, this is the hand they are dealt.

  • Larry

    Hypotheticaly…If the league resumes operation…trades, minicamps, workouts and a FA, and a player, under no contract at all, approaches a team and asked to be signed…given the dissolution of the union..I believe he is free to sign.

    That contract may eventually be amended to comply with a new CBA but but that player would be “under contract”.

    Essentially this is what would happen once the NFL by court ruling or other starts is “league year” . It begins to conduct business as usual signing and trading players. IMO

    • Rick

      League rules and policy must be in effect for a team to be open for business. If the court says start your season and the league decides to not disband (a very legal and ultimate fudge you to the former NFLPA) then…

      Goodell will pick a start date – with in a week or two – and start the season and specify what rules to work under. Most likely we would resume with rules as the last year of the last CBA. That would mean operating as if this was 2010 again with all rules and regulations attached. That means FA need 6 years, the tags are in effect etc.

      Please realize the the league can disband. ALL CONTRACTS END!!! No TV, No Player, NO nothing. It is over. The courts can fudge themselves in that case and each team can decide if they want football or not.

      The players are out of work to… welcome to the CFL or Arena League you idiots.

      This sounds like the NHL lockout. In a year with out pay what do yo think the former NFL players will do….

      • Rick

        Sounds like league business under 2010 rules will be in effect starting Monday. That is until the NLRB makes its ruling in June and the penalty is awarded from Doty on the TV contract.

        • Rick

          That also means trades for only pick for pick is allowed as if the lock out was in effect.

  • Packer’s Advocate

    Pulled out some names from articles. No idea really.
    1st. Ingram RB or tade to early 2nd and picks for next year. Trade is my pick….. So.

    2nd Ras-I Dowling CB
    2nd Ballard DL
    3rd Greg Little WR
    4th Dontay Moch LB
    4th ???
    5th Marcus Cannon OL
    6th Jordan Cameron TE
    7th Tandon Doss OL
    7th ???

    • Rick

      Not bad PA, not bad. Dowling would be a great CB depth pick up. You know I like Ballard. Little is a great 3rd rounder for GB to develop. Cannon might be a tackle or guard so good depth pick up there and I like Cameron as a TE for depth.

      • Packer’s Advocate

        I stole Ballard from yours. Don’t even know his first name.

        • Rick


          First name is Christian. He is from Iowa.

          • iccyfan

            He reportedly tested positive for marijuana at the combine; must’ve been hanging around with Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (Hawk’s all-time leading WR for TD’s)…

            He’s surprised me before but Ted usually selects players with clean noses…

  • Larry

    I guess that’s why TT is so secretive…rascals abound.

  • Mel E Mel

    The Silver Rush of the late 70s Early eighties is Back. Minnesota, TEN, and Jacksonville are planning on long lockout.

  • Larry

    half point…I got the position….Da bears took Carini…I thought chicago would go WR or CB

  • Sherrod, booooo! His write-up sounds like Cliffy; can slide to pass block, but not push for the run game. Oh, well, maybe in a year or two he can protect AR, cause I think Bulaga stays on the right side.

  • Mel E Mel

    Wilkerson and Heyward almost slipped down to us. No one was willing to help the Pack this time trade down. (They know they cant compete) I like the Sherrod Pick, Cant afford to go cheap with the Franchise back there. Look at the backups on the line: Lang,Newhouse,Campbell now Sherrod. Thats 4 tackles somenone will separate. Someone may go inside. Detroit, with Suh, Vanden Bosch,Williams and Fairley may be one of the great Dlines of all time.

    • Rick

      True. Detroit is getting stronger while the Vikes get weaker with Williams suspended.

      I really wish the Vikes had not taken Ponder. He scores close to what I ranked ARodgers year ago except .2 lower for the shoulder injury. At least they wasted a 1st rounder on him and probably will play him right away.

  • iccyfan

    I’m ecstatic with this pick; you can never have too many big uglies!

  • Mel E Mel

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/553879-2011-nfl-draft-game-film-of-the-top-ten-offensive-line-prospects#page/2 Every snap of Derek Sherrod every play vs. Kentucky. You can see his hoops background. He is left Tackle, #79 of course that Ryan Picketts so he will need another #

  • I was hoping for Carimi or Ingram but the Pats price was too steep and the Bears wouldn’t trade with us. The real specialty for the personnel guys is the later rounds and undrafted free agents so there’s a long way to go.

  • Rick

    Wow. The number 25 guy on my big board. I had him ahead of James Carpenter that Seattle drafted. GB had serious offers to trade back but not enough value to not take the #25 at spot #32.

    For PA’s game 23 correct O or D picks, 10 correct position picks, 4 perfect picks both team and player.

    For Larry——
    To be honest it looked to be a no brainer to me. Just look at who is left for TT to draft.

    Highest Rated players not taken at GB pick #32

    #16 DaQuan Bowers, DE Clemson (great tape, great numbers,bad knee)
    #25 Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi State (Great Pass blocker, average Run Blocker)
    #30 Aaron Williams, CB Texas (CB/ Nickel/ ST ace, has been burned in coverage)
    #31 Akeem Ayers, OLB UCLA (Great on film, slow at combine and pro day)
    #32 Jabeel Sheard, DE Pitt ( Bull of a man but not a pass rusher)

    Depending on GBs board these guys would be the reason to trade down to get or maybe take at #32. Note #33 Watkins OG and #34 Ponder QB have already been drafted.

    #35 Brandon Harris, CB Miami ( 5’10” makes him smaller then GB likes)
    #36 Mikel Leshore, RB Illinois (Solid every down back, good not great speed)
    #37 Martez Wilson, ILB Illinois (Perfect 4-3 ILB, slow in coverage situations)
    #38 Torrey Smith, WR Maryland(6ft and 4.4 fast,poor at route running and underneath routes)

    Only after a trade down scenerio would GB grab one of these guys and Houston, Mallet and Randolph really aren’t on the Gb to draft

    #39 Justin Houston, OLB Georgia (Off GB board with positive drug test at combine)
    #40 Kyle Rudolph, TE Notre Dame ( Recovering from injury, no combine no pro day)
    #41 Ryan Mallet, QB Arkansas ( Off Gb with attitude and off field issues)
    #42 Stephen Paea, DT Oregon State
    #43 Andy Dalton, QB TCU
    #44 Reed Brooks, OLB Arizona
    #45 Ras-I Dowling, CB Virginia
    #46 Leonard Hankerson, WR Miami
    #47 Ryan Williams, RB Virginia Tech
    #48 Randall Cobb, WR Kentucky
    #49 Rodney Hudson, C Florida St
    #50 Marvin Austin, DT North Carolina

  • Larry

    Interesting analysis Rick…other than Bowers (bad knee), Sherrod was BPA.

  • iccyfan

    Former NFL Scout Wes Bunting at the National Football Post had Sherrod as his #18 overall player. He was the obvious selection after the Saints nabbed #8 Cameron Jordan & #9 Mark Ingram. FWIW, Bunting had Da’Quan Bowers at #19 overall.

    Bunting has Sherrod as the #3 OT behind Smith & Carimi but ahead of Castonzo and Solder. I think Ted did well again (though I was getting excited at the prospect of Mark Ingram)….

  • Yeah, and when the run game doesn’t go anywhere, again, it will be Campman’s fault. Strictly a need pick; how can the 6th rated tackle (generous) or 8th, 9th rated OL be BPA at #32? He could turn out to be a journeyman OT, ala Clifton, and start for the next ten years, who knows? Point is, I was looking for more immediate impact at that pick or gather more picks for potential further down. MeM is probably right, nobody would trade with us. Strange, NE always seems to. Oh, well, my negative Nellie is coming out. We’ll see in a couple of years for this one. Long time to wait for a no. 1 IMO.

    • To get more impact we had to trade up and the price at our draft position was too steep. If we could have traded players with picks we could have done that but it wasn’t allowed in this draft. We’ve got to be patient like TT always is and take the BPA, which Rick says this is.

    • Rick

      A little harsh. I have him as #4 OT and he easily can challenge for an inside Guard spot this year. As far as trade down options for GB, you need someone that wants to trade up to get someone. Other than Sherrod or Bowers no team really needed GBs spot. The only reason would be if a team wanted to leap frog others to get a particular player like a QB. We wer enot in a spot to get as much in return. So you take the BPA and move on.

  • Packer’s Advocate

    Ah, the cost of winning the SUPERBOWL!!!!!!!!!!! Had to watch a lot of good players go off the board. Atlanta paid a fortune but got what appears to be a decent receiver and made R. White, Turner and Ryan all a little better. So they think a track meet w/the Pack is the way to go…………… Packer’s match their move w/the return of Finley. Even Steven and we’re one up w/Sherrod. Round 2 we add Neal and a pick. 3…….. add Burnett and another pick. Almost like getting two picks every round with all that IR returning.

    • Rick

      Good observation. They want a SBowl NOW!! They are giving up a few extra picks to grab there man right now. It may work out. Beat GB at home and they would play the Bears in a track meet the Bears would not win. SO stretch out the defense andgive Matty Ice more weapons. That is scary, very scary for the NFC south.

  • Packer’s Advocate

    Sticking w/Ballard for round two Rick??? Iccy mentioned he tested for pot.

    • Rick

      He is a perfect player for GB and should be around when we draft but the stupidity of smoking dope when the combine is coming up…. that is a FAIL in my book. I say TT takes him off the board unless there is more to the story.