Week 1 is in the books. I’m not sure how much one can learn from the first week of football. I don’t think we really know who’s good and who’s not good until week four or five, but that doesn’t mean we should stop playing daily fantasy, does it?
I think my picks panned out decently last week. Not all of them were winners, but they never are, which is why you shouldn’t play the same roster in every game. Without further ado, here are my thoughts on this week’s games. Be sure to check out the podcast for even more discussion.
There’s no shortage of points coming from QBs. I really like Rodgers again this week, and I also have a good feeling about Brady, but both are prohibitively expensive.
Palmer vs Indianapolis
Instead, I would look for Palmer to bounce back from his horrid performance last week, but Palmer is known to have games like that, so we probably shouldn’t be too surprised. I think there’s major upside given that their running game is gone, and they’re playing against probably the worst team in the league right now.
Rivers vs Miami
Rivers’ fantasy score last week vs Denver came mainly from turnovers late in the game that led to three TD passes, and I think that’s a big reason that his value is so low this week, which makes him a great pick in my estimation. The Dolphins are nowhere near as good as Denver on defense, so I think we’ll see Rivers have a more typical game, and that should make him a good pick for your cash games.
Carson Wentz vs Kansas City
I think some people will look at Brady’s so-so game and shy away from the KC defense this week, but that’s a mistake. KC allowed four red zone trips (maybe five, I’m not sure if the 35-yard field goal was pushed back by a sack off the top of my head), and the Patriots decided to run for TDs instead of throwing for them. I think many of New England’s problems were of their own creation, and I think Philadelphia will perform better. Wentz seems to me a solid starter this week; this is especially true for your cash games, and for the price, it’s hard to go wrong.
Bonus Pick (DraftKings only)
This is a longshot pick, and I’ll cover my thoughts on him in more detail in the podcast, but Trevor Siemian is $4,900 on DraftKings right now. Playing a $4,900 QB saves you a ton of cap, and allows you to stack at other positions.
Ezekiel Elliot vs Denver.
He ran very well last week, and, perhaps more importantly, he pulled in five catches for 36 yards. The passing game doesn’t open up too often against Denver, so there’s a good chance that Elliot will see another day filled with touches, both on the ground, and in dump off passes as the coverage dictates.
I want to see a couple more weeks of Denver bottling up the run defense before I believe they’ve improved so drastically during the offseason because their rush D was awful last year.
Ty Montgomery vs Atlanta
Atlanta gave up a lot of points to Chicago’s utility player last week. He’s got high touch potential again this week, and I think the ground will be more open in Atlanta than it was in Seattle, where the defense is significantly better.
Jordy Nelson vs Atlanta
I don’t see significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball in Atlanta from last year. I know that every defense has a bad day from time to time, but if the Bears had even one good wide receiver, one guy who can actually catch the ball when it hits him in the hands in the end zone, Atlanta would have lost the game. Take away a dropped TD at the end of the game, and Atlanta gave up 24 points to the Bears. THE BEARS. They have no one to throw to in Chicago.
The danger with this pick is that Rodgers doesn’t care who he throws to: he only cares that they’re open. Jordy is typically a safe bet, though; he’s clearly the best WR on the team, and Rodgers preferred target.
Keenan Allen vs Miami
Like I said about Rivers, the Chargers were okay versus the league’s best passing defense. They’re not playing Denver again, so the passing game should be a lot more open this week.
Other Players I Like This Week
Terrelle Pryor vs the Rams: he’s cementing himself as the clear number one in Washington.
Gronkowski should do well against New Orleans, but that’s a lot of money to dedicate to a tight end, and I don’t really see any sure-fire bets out there this week. It seems like this is a good week to look for a good matchup. Look for tight ends who get a lot of targets, preferably those who are playing defenses weak over the middle. Here are a couple players, depending on the site at which you play.
Jesse James vs Minnesota
This may seem contradictory to what I said above, but the Vikings are much better on the outside than they are on the inside. Fleener hauling in five for 54 yards and a TD last week makes this clear.
Julius Thomas vs the Chargers
The ball has to go to someone, and the Chargers do a nice job of defending receivers (see Thomas and Sanders doing nearly nothing against them last week for proof). Jay likes to force it to big targets, too. I don’t think I’d count on him for points and play him in cash games (or even more expensive GPPs), but he might be a good pick for a low-cost GPP.
Ravens vs Cleveland
The Ravens are really expensive for a defense, but they’ll cost you less than the better options of Seattle or Arizona this week. If you have the budget, they should perform well against the Browns. Dalton is terrible, but the Bengals still have a better offense than the Browns, and the Ravens blanked ‘em in week 1.
Steelers vs Minnesota
I know, Minnesota sure looked good on Monday night, so why on earth should you play the Steelers? The Saints can’t play defense, that’s why. Let’s give it a couple of weeks before we get too hyped on the Vikings offense, shall we?