Check out the latest on the Packernet Podcast as we prepare for the Packers matchup with the 49ers
8s – 1m 8s
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome, once again to the back of that podcast. I am your post and Resident panelist has always right and she lifts check it out online packernet.com. Find me on Twitter Pack underscore data. So today we’re going to have to start talking about the 49ers a little bit more because the game is tomorrow also going to be out of town again. So I’ve got the laptop that really just doesn’t even work. So we’ll just have to see how it goes obviously have to put out something but it might just be on my phone. I don’t know so we got to get in as much today as possible because tomorrow just stared there’s no guarantees cuz my laptop is so awesome. It takes like 45 minutes just to turn it on. So I’ve got some other NFL stuff. We’re just going to put off until another day next week, whatever and I do want to try to get into a usually what I do is sort of a deep statistical dive orbital PFF grades or or whatever. I want to do that a little bit, but I’m really I’m really starting to feel I should say starting I’m done. I’m just I’m fully immersed in the emotion of the
1m 8s – 2m 8s
And so I want to try to keep it somewhat cerebral but I’m having a hard time getting into that that had space cuz I am I’m just in full on. I mean it’s a combination between being overwhelmed that we’re even here and in were you know, if in 48 hours we’re going to know whether the Packers are going to the Superbowl less than that, obviously, but it’s more than twenty-four. So I just rounded up cuz it’s easier will call at 36 and say that’s probably closed and so I’m going to try to strike that balance today because we got to get into some kind of substance of thing, but I still feel like I got a lot to get off my chest and any other the other part of it is is that we’re so close but also the amount of trash talk that’s been going on his crazy and end if you been listening, you know, the one thing that’s going to bait me are terrible arguments. If you lay out an argument that says this is why the 49ers going to win. I don’t care at all. I’m going to read it not my head and go yet makes sense and move on cuz I just died. That’s fine. You’re allowed to think.
2m 8s – 3m 8s
Anybody can win and here’s my analysis and all right good good one, but just terrible argument, especially by the I’ll call them the blue checkmark folk just really about that. But supposed authorities people that are supposed to be in the know. They’re supposed to be above us that we’re just fans. They’re professionals. I can’t help myself man. I just can’t help it. So again, that’s my goal. Today is to strike that balance will see how it goes because we got both to talk about. So anyways, just want to say a big thank you to everyone that is now supporting on patreon. We are up to 58 patrons, which is fantastic anywhere. We’re well beyond any amount of support of ever had if you have the ability to support the podcast it would be very greatly appreciate it again as little as a dollar a month really goes a long way for me and I’m assuming for most all of you it did that’s not going to impact you very much the next goal I have set is to get up to a hundred patrons and when we get to that goal, but by the way
3m 8s – 4m 7s
The 18th we can get there by about forty two people that’s like going to 1% of the people listening. Then what I want to do for the giveaway is not only are you going to get whatever t-shirt you want you get to pick whatever design you want has to be Packers related has to be family friendly. Preferably something that can go in the store or not. You know, Jim is awesome. Go pack go like no man, but if you want to like za’darius snub sure, whatever you get to pick the design. I will go pay to have it design. I will put it in the store for sale and you will be getting one of those for free as of right now the giveaway is you go into the store you pick any item because we’re going to have a good day giveaway for everyone who is a patron or donor of any kind some people giving other ways. They are also included my goals and I’m hoping you can jump in and help me with that. Otherwise 5 * iTunes review Stitcher review any kind review would be greatly appreciated and again to make sure you are subscribing to the Packers podcast. Now remember that’s the name of the podcast.
4m 8s – 5m 7s
Ultra confusing thing and I apologize is that the correct podcast the logo says pack daddy the incorrect podcast the logo says packernet again. I apologize. It is what it is. Anyways, why don’t we just hurry up and take a break so we can get into this cuz I have a lot of things I want to say ladies and gents if you’ve got nagging muscle and joint pain, you got to at least check out omax Health. It is a natural breakthrough pain relief solution and it’s called cryofreeze CBD. It’s a role on develop Biomax health does no prescription needed triple-action pain relief and is specifically formulated to block the pain receptors and reduce inflammation. It is 100% natural. It’s CBD powered it works within 10 minutes and it’ll last up to eight hours anyone from professional athletes to Grandma Josie can benefit from the immediate pain relief. If you got pain that won’t go away then you need to know Max cryofreeze.
5m 8s – 6m 8s
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6m 8s – 7m 3s
Baseball players before and after in the great news is once it’s done you’re in Arizona on vacation. If you’re into like quirky art see Ghost Town e stuff. They got it. If you’re looking for a real nice Water Resort in up class high-class haute couture restaurants that got it. Whatever you want to do after you watch some baseball. You can do it. So planner spring training get away at visit arizona.com spring training, you know, you want to call right where to begin? Why don’t we start with a question from the Facebook group? This is from Taylor. Taylor says do you think this is Rogers best chance at another Super Bowl? I know the team is locked up a large part of the defense, but I think the lack of injuries this year is an oddity in with getting home field advantage in a bye last week. I’m not sure if we’ll get a better chance and he has right now also if he doesn’t make it doesn’t really hurt his legacy is being one of the best in the game matter of fact, is he the owner?
7m 4s – 8m 4s
O matter of fact is he’s only been to a single Superbowl got it. So I don’t want to again answer this in some kind of a lazy fashion cuz I know you’re looking for a direct like yes or no answer in terms of you know, like is this going to be the best team or whatever? I don’t know. The point is though the Packers have to act as though this is they’re not just best opportunity. It might be their last opportunity and that’s not a commentary on whether or not I think we’re going to get better. It’s just a fact of the matter of regardless of how we feel about what the potential is. We have to know. There’s a potential that there’s a Russian and there are some good points in terms of is this an oddity in other words. Look I said a lot last year about how the Chicago Bears were likely going to regress because things were performing higher than expectations certain things certain players certain whatever you could make a case of the Packers are in the same boat not obviously you can make it a case of the for example, the biggest lagging thing here is the often which is beginning to click and
8m 4s – 9m 4s
Is about to add a bunch of talent, of course, we can sit here and now they’re going to be much better next year possibly but let’s just for argument’s sake and for the sake of not wanting to be negative at this time of year. Let’s just say they do get better in 2011. The Green Bay Packers were 15 and one they didn’t win the Super Bowl that year. They haven’t won a Super Bowl since they haven’t even been to a Superbowl since 2010. This isn’t even about being better. The Super Bowl really is a different entity. It’s not about earning. It is not about deserving it. It’s not about it in terms of this is the best team there for you get in I would say even the best team has a is unlikely to get in it’s not about that anymore. That’s what everybody’s missing while 49ers better Chiefs or better bone. There you go teams like the Rams and the Chiefs and the 15 one Packers back in 2011 were deserving teams. That did not win a Superbowl at so even if the Packers get better next year that doesn’t mean they’re going to automatically get to the Superbowl, but let me continue to allow.
9m 4s – 10m 4s
This isn’t just an Aaron Rodgers issue because he’s getting up and made this isn’t just a Bryan bulaga tissue Randall Cobb was drafted in 2011 in his rookie year the Packers would 15 + watt Randall. Cobb has never been to a Superbowl Randall Cobb. Got let go by the team that drafted he’s about to become a free agent on his second team. Now, I don’t care if you’re Aaron Rodgers Kevin King or rashan Gary. This might be your last opportunity to have an opportunity to Simply win this game and be to the Super Bowl. I know it feels like a rookie therefore and I know from a Fan’s perspective. This is a young team we can get multiple Super Bowl. I know what it feels like and I know we can look into the future and say well they can just get better. So can everybody else. I’m sure guys like Derek Sherrod and Devon House were also drafted that you’re felt on top of the world. I’m sure there was a feeling of oh, well, we’ll get them next time which by the way if the Packers lose to the 49ers, that’s the mentality we’re all going to take.
10m 4s – 11m 4s
The fact of the matter is that 15 in one season was followed by five playoff losses and Then followed after that like two years of just missing the playoff. Do I think this is our best chance in terms of is this going to be the best team to win the Super bowl over the next 5-6 years? I don’t know. I would guess not I’m assuming they’re going to get better. But my point is it doesn’t matter if they get better. It’s entirely possible that get better and don’t get to the Superbowl you have to take what’s right in front of you right now and assume it’s never going to happen again. And again, it doesn’t matter if you’re 22 or 42 because even if the Packers get better guess what the Saints are still a team. The Seahawks are still a team the Vikings the 49ers the Rams and the Cowboys. They’re all teams that are good teams that have the ability to get better and win the Packers can get better next year and lose some of these clothes game 13 and 3 is is a near impossibility. Even for good team and forget about teams that are good. Now that might also get better. What about teams that are not very good that could have murdered her about the Cardinal the Young
11m 4s – 12m 4s
We’re back in and you know getting that whole system together. They have a good draft. Why can’t they the Eagles? You think they can’t get back on top the Giants? I don’t know about their leadership, but they’ve got a quarterback that got a running back. They started building that offensive line. They’re going to have some really high draft pick who’s to say they can’t get better. What about the Redskins with Haskin and the fact that they’re about to get Chase young similar to how the 49ers just got Nick Bosa and also have a newer better more talented Co there’s 32 teams is my point and being even the best out of 32 doesn’t guarantee you of of a darn thing. So, I don’t know if it’s their best chance, but this has to be everybody’s everybody’s mentality has to be this is it because it might be this is a very big deal and all they’ll be the obvious mentality is look this is just this is this is your what this thing is. Just getting started this only better from here at we have no idea what’s coming. What happened to this team is a Darius and press start the best pass-rush duo in football what happens if siderius just gets like 9
12m 4s – 13m 4s
Next next year or 10 or 11 and in Preston gets 8 that’s still better than we have had but it’s not this freakish Lehigh number even if we had a good wide receiver. I don’t know that that fully balances that out and I’m not trying to be negative. I believe the Packers are going to get better. I trust and Brian gutekunst. I trust and Matt LaFleur, I trust and Aaron Rodgers. I trust in his defense and Mike Pettine. I think they’re going to continue to get better. But again, it doesn’t matter if they get better. You are not guaranteed and NFC Championship game. Just cuz you got better does that mean you’re as good as the Vikings or the Saints or the 49ers do you think maybe they could get better? You think the Cowboys could make it better? Of course, they can’t so yes, everybody needs to act as though we will never get another opportunity again because the fact of the matter is there’s a very good chance if you don’t get there now, there’s a lot of guys on this team who will never ever see you Super Bowl and you can go back through the list of all the players that have come and gone through Greenbay since the last time they were at a Superbowl.
13m 5s – 14m 4s
The list is pretty long. It is not a foregone conclusion that we’re going to be here every year. This is a very very very important moment. This is a very very very important game and I I believe the Packers know what I hope they know it and especially the rookies Jimmy Graham doesn’t need to be reminded that this is probably his last chance marcedes Lewis probably doesn’t need to be reminded at the end the fact that Aaron Rodgers talks in every other interview about how the finality of his career is becoming very clear. He knows this could be his last opportunity. These guys don’t need reminding but guys, like jaire guys, like Darnell Savage and Elton Jenkin they need to recognize that they may never ever get another chance to get into a Super Bowl and win a Super Bowl championship and although it seems weird cuz it’s your rookie year. You got to recognize that. It’s true. So very good question and it took me awhile to think that through but at that that’s the best answer I’ve got I don’t know if this is their best. Yes, it’s their best chance because they’re there he’s all
14m 4s – 15m 4s
What words would you would you trade away this opportunity for the next five years like it if you had to guess or put money down on win the Packers win a Super Bowl. Would you bet on this year when they’re in the NFC Championship or would you look at the next 5 years in bed on that? You can put your money in the next 5 years. It’s not a terrible bet but I’m I’m I’m taking a bird in the hand approach. We’re here now. It seems weird. We shouldn’t be rookie head coach, right? We’re in a rebuilt. We just did a tear down a year ago. You shouldn’t be here this fast, but we are and we might not be here again. And so we’ve got to strike now. So I want to know move on to finish this so much overlap with all this, you know that the weird thing about this is that making a case for how and why the 49ers win is not a hard thing to do. It’s not hard. So what would possess somebody to make ridiculous cases? Why would you need to over exaggerate the case for the 49ers? They don’t need help. There’s no reason.
15m 4s – 16m 4s
July in the favor of the 49ers there a good football team. And so when you see on I believe it was ESPN the graphics going around all over the place talking about which matchups are the best in other words with the best quarterback who is the best wide receiver or receivers. It’s it’s 49ers all the way down the line with the exception of special teams, which is just weird. It’s all so strange that the only group left out. They included defense every unit on offense special teams and coaches, but they left out offensive line and area that’s pretty clearly in the favor of the Packers. What’s the 49ers are bad, but I find it a little strange. But why would you need to lie about the quarterback you actually believe Jimmy Garoppolo is a better quarterback than Aaron Rodgers even in a supposed down here for Aaron Rodgers. Is that your belief how why and based on what first of all you’re saying that the 49ers have better coaches, correct? So he has a better person.
16m 4s – 17m 4s
Getting stuff from his coaches according to you has better receivers. And so you would expect a guy that plays for a better team with better running backs better coaches better play calling better receivers and is a better quarterback would have better stats isn’t is that a reasonable expectation that a better quarterback with better weapons and better coaching wouldn’t would perform better than a not as good quarterback was not as good weapons. Not as good running back not as good coaches not as good play-calling but yet we’ve got Jimmy Garoppolo with 40 100 yards Aaron Rodgers with 4200 yards pretty similar. Aaron Rodgers is a head. But again, why would that be the case for the more they both have 28 touchdown, which is weird. You would expect you to have more cuz he’s better and is better weapons and running back and coaches. But then when you go to interceptions, Aaron Rodgers has for Jimmy G has 14 be on that if we look at Pro Football Focus, which is grading every single snap every single play. Aaron Rodgers has a
17m 4s – 17m 60s
85.3 overall great which is to say very good. Jimmy Garoppolo is a 77.7, which is good. If we look at the quarterbacks when there’s no pressure from a clean pocket who’s better. Jimmy garoppolo’s in 89.5. Basically Elite. Aaron Rodgers is a 91.3 unquestionably Elite. What about Under Pressure though? Aaron Rodgers draft all the way down to a 61.7 joist thrown for a thousand yards six touchdowns in a pig. Jimmy garoppolo’s grade is a 47.65 touchdowns, which is one last and 5 interception and he’s only thrown for 864 yards while Under Pressure. Why why would you say that? Why would you again even if you’re biased even if you’re a 49ers fan, maybe ESPN’s headquarters is out and in San Francisco tomorrow biased in Al Packer hating 49er fans. I don’t know you can still make the case. The 49ers are a better team.
18m 1s – 19m 1s
And keep your integrity by admitting Aaron Rodgers a better quarterback. That’s that’s the baffling thing about this you’re destroying your own credibility on live television for the sake of overstating a case. That doesn’t need to be overstated. You can just say Aaron Rodgers is better than Jimmy although Jimmy still good and you can make a case about the running backs, which is a fairly reasonable case. If you wanted to push that issue you can say they have a better running back group and a pack of fans want to dig in their heels on that. I’m probably not going to argue. Aaron Jones is the best running back of the group. If you want it. He’s the only one with over a thousand yard and he has 10 more touchdowns than anybody in San Francisco. However, he’s got a lot more attempts than anybody else. Also. He’s running for 4.5 yards-per-attempt Raheem mostert is running for five point six, Matt breida 4.9 yard. So unless you just want to say Aaron Jones has more touchdowns than Tevin Coleman and and mostert combined and Matt breida for that man, Matt breida.
19m 1s – 20m 1s
Kevin Coleman Foster combine have 17 touchdowns. Aaron Jones has 18 again. You can make the case if you want to but you don’t have to it’s pretty close. You could even make the argument that they have a better running back then Aaron Jones if you want to look at yards-per-attempt as your main metric, I just don’t understand the need to over exaggerate stuff again. It’s very simple based on lots of different metrics that you would come out with the fact that the 49ers are a better team. Why do you need to lie? There’s also been a lot of talk about the pass rushers. Yeah. The Packers have a couple of guys but the 49ers have just got this Elite front for it’s not even close. The Packers aren’t as good and they come up with these random statistic. And again, there’s no reason to lie. Your team doesn’t have to be the best in every single category in order for you to be right about something. This was a comment made on Twitter to game changers versus for game records. I’ll take the 49ers and that’s that’s that’s just a guy on Twitter, but that’s been
20m 1s – 21m 1s
Heated by a lot of people, so I just laid out the staff and I was even making a case that they’re entirely wrong, but the idea that there’s two guys against for guys is kind of just incorrect. Here are the team pressure percentages, and some people came out with her ear AIDS and all this nonsense to try to twist the numbers. The fact of the matter is pressure percentage is when you’re trying to get to the quarterback, how often do you do with number one on this list is the Darius Smith at 17.87% That is a ridiculous number that is almost never been reached in in PFF era history. Very very rare BOCES number to a 16.7 Ford is number 3 at 14th, then Preston at 13th and Armstead at 12 Kenny at 12 fackrell attend Buckner attend Gary a tent. So, it’s really just you got to elite elite guys into Darius and boat to very good guys in Ford and press then you got the good players in Armstead and Kenny were pretty even across the bull and then you’ve got the not terrible.
21m 1s – 22m 1s
Pass rushers in fackrell Buckner and Gary and I took all the guys with a certain amount of of snaps that are above the 10% Mark. It’s pretty even if it is as I guess the point that depending on the metric the Packers are better depending on you know, this or that the 49ers are better to look at Saks. It’s definitely the Packers best pass-rushers seems to be za’darius most pass rushers above 10 would be the Packers, but I’m sure there’s a lot of other metrics to look at that would say the 49er the birth of the bottom line is though they’re both Elite pass-rusher groups and the media narrative is that the 49ers are just on a different level. The Packers have za’darius was very good. But he’s not as good as Bosa. He’s nowhere near as good as bosun Ford combined with Preston and all that is just the Packers have a couple of improvement but the 49ers are on a different level and that’s just not true any idea that well, do you know they’re they’re much better against the run the Packers which if we want to go to the more well-rounded route, it is true the package of struggled against the run their 23rd in yards allowed 24.
22m 1s – 23m 1s
Open yards-per-attempt. Here’s the thing. The 49ers are 23rd in yards per attempt there one spot higher than a 17th in yards on the ground. They’re not that good men are not bad, but it’s not like this is an elite Defender by the way, all the talk about Elite defense in this and that this is an offensive football team. This is a team that wins with offense not as much defense. The defense has a mass of supporting factor for this is the this this team is number 2 on offense number 8 on defense in terms of points. Allow me to elaborate further. I’ve done a lot as far as correlations looking at statistics. I want to try that once but looking at Pro Football Focus cuz we can do a week-to-week look at position-by-position whether they performed really well or really poorly what the correlations are between winning and losing so if we start with defense obviously a better defensive performance is more largely going to correlate with win. The problem is it’s not as solid or direct of a correlation.
23m 1s – 24m 1s
Point in case case and point the 49ers best defensive performance in this is backed up by d v o l d v o a as well as PFF for all the anti PFF is dvoa and PFF varioline out of my most thing slight variation, but they’re very life best defensive performance by the 49ers all year with week 10 against the Seattle Seahawks. They lost that game worst performance. They had on defense by Favre week 9 against the Arizona Cardinals. They won that game offensively best performance was against Seattle Seahawks in week 17. They won that game worst performance Seattle Seahawks week 10 week 10 was simultaneously their defense is best game their offenses. Worst game guess what happened? Guess what one out there is a much stronger correlation between their offense of success and winning football game. Let me elaborate further looking at offensive grades over all week to week when the offense does not get to a 70 which is quote-unquote good when the offense is not good or was it when they are good?
24m 2s – 25m 1s
The team is 12 and elf when they don’t get to that 70 mark their two and three so this brings up another point and it’s one of the more frustrating things. I’ve seen it again. It goes to the to the point of just being embarrassed for people that call themselves professional. There’s another quote going around and essentially it’s I don’t see any way the Packers win. This is so logically incoherent. It’s unbelievable granted. This was said by a state’s I don’t even want to see the title cuz it’s so embarrassing to use her relatively high up people at NBC Sports. I believe the one of them is a Seattle guy. Maybe he’s just anti Packers. I don’t know maybe it’s just because it’s the 49ers and you got a good look at how good they are, right? You know, I don’t know but then you got the guy that said Mitch trubisky is better than Aaron Rodgers that dolt back this up, but here’s the logical inconsistency with it. It’s not a matter of can they win any team can win On Any Sunday? We know that so to say there’s no way is
25m 2s – 26m 2s
Eyerly self-defeating because you know, there’s a way the question is in every game what are the conditions in which the underdog wins that is a question you can ask and answer every single week for you to come out and admit that I can’t think of any possible way is your attempt to be spiteful. But again, you’re doing it at your own expense. Could you make yourself look dumb? We’re talkin about Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Jones Davante Adams David bakhtiari Bryan. Bulaga za’darius Smith Preston Smith, Kenny Clark King jaire Savage a most this is a talented football team with some of the better talent in the entire NFL in you’re coming out publicly saying I can’t think of a single way that that roster can beat the team that lost to the Falcons a couple weeks ago. I just don’t have that kind of imagination that that’s that’s that is entirely you saying I stink at my job and you’re doing it to be
26m 2s – 27m 1s
I don’t know you’re exaggerating a point. I just I just don’t understand the people that that want to make a a strong point by deliberately saying I’m a dummy. I can’t even fathom that you can’t think of a way you can get this is it this is the San Francisco 49ers team that is lost 3 game. This is a Packers team that is 114 game. You can’t think of the conditions in which a 14 wind team can beat a team that has been beaten this year. So, you know how the 49ers lose you have a very large sample size of how the Packers win and you can’t think of what those conditions might be and then you said it publicly that is shockingly embarrassing and if I was your employer, I would be appalled in the fact that this is like the fifth time that this has happened but we have people that are self-proclaimed intelligent people who walk around with their chest puffed out because of their title and then go on Twitter and demonstrate why they should not have any position of the kind is baffling to me by the way children.
27m 2s – 28m 2s
If you’re listening one of the biggest misconceptions is that adults know what they’re doing. We don’t if you have aspirations to go out and be something and do something the biggest and best piece of advice I can give you is that nobody knows what they’re doing. Everybody’s just Faking It with very rare exception. So if you’re good at something go do it a hundred percent because a lot of people in that industry are not very good at what they’re doing and I don’t mean to be disparaging but that is the exact reason. I started the Packers podcast. It suits my strengths and I’ve also listen to several Packers podcast. There’s some good ones. There’s some really really garbage podcast that’s life in a nutshell go. Look at the managing editor of NBC sports or whatever. Look at how that man’s brain works or doesn’t look at the guy at Terra Kiger from PFF this analytical website who who doubles down on the defense that defense doesn’t matter and that a game in which the Packers
28m 2s – 29m 2s
Defense beat the Seahawks offense was an example of that. If you have aspirations just push real hard and also make a lot of connections because that’s the only way I can think that people like this end up with jobs like those it’s not competence. Sometimes it might be but it doesn’t have to be that you got dreams push real hard you’ll get there if you’re good at something go for it. Cuz everybody else probably isn’t it remarkable to me anytime. You want to bait me into something just say ignorant nonsense like that and I spent 30 seconds this morning trying to find a condition in which the Packers we I come out here and find out that it’s it’s number one. It’s an offensive driven team because I turned off what the media says, which is that this is an elite defense with George Kittle. So it’s George kill and an elite defense. They do have a good defense. They’re their top 10 barely but their top 10 in point anyways, which is the only thing that really matters in football there a switch by the way, the Packers are 9th to the fact that that’s the big like the big thing is that the Packers have a pretty good defense for the 40.
29m 2s – 29m 59s
I was just on a different level but they’re not though beyond that. Let me illuminate something out. The only thing the Packers need to win. This game is an offensive performance. Yes that I mean the defense has to show up but we’re talking about a defense that is not allowed more than 23 points since the last time they play the 49ers which was an anomaly anybody saying this is going to be a repeat which is something that blue check mark people have been saying this is going to be a repeat of week 12 which again wildly ignorant but but the Packers have not allowed a lot of Point by the way, Seattle’s offense is pretty good and although they looked pretty gas by the end of that game. That’s because they had Russell Wilson running around this is not Russell Wilson. This is a static quarterback. And by the way that guy a lot of those pressures and socks came from Russell Wilson holding the ball a lot cuz nobody was open this defense with a very good pass-rush that was getting to Russell Wilson a lot and don’t the only reason they didn’t have 10 sacks is because of his ability to escape
29m 60s – 30m 60s
Table out 23 2010 13 15 and 13 the last few games they play one of those teams, by the way, the lowest of which was the Minnesota Vikings in Minnesota if the Packers defense keeps doing what it’s been doing, which I’ve been saying for a long time the magic numbers 24 and they have not allowed a team above $0.24 San Francisco and it’s only been a handful of teams that have gotten above 24 three to be exact Eagles and charges of the only other teams that have gotten a book 24. By the way those the only three teams that have ever beaten the Green Bay Packers if it is true that this offense is in a rhythm if it is true that they’re starting to get there grew. How can you not come up with a scenario in which the Packers win? Because ultimately I think that’s what this game comes down to on both sides of the ball. The defense is ability to stop the offense and look the 49ers offense has been better than the Packers. So that’s sort of the storyline if you want to make a case for the 49ers. It’s very simple on top of being home. It’s the fact that two very similar defenses are trying to stop two offenses and between the two offenses you have the
30m 60s – 31m 59s
15th ranked Packers offense trying to be stopped by the 49ers defense compared to the second-ranked 49ers offense against the Packers defense. The Packers defense has a more difficult job. That’s the simple case you make but the problem with that narrative is that it’s not that big of a a blowout scenario. It’s it’s more of the 49ers have a slight Edge and nobody wants to say that that you because again, the Packers are frauds Packers are useless 49ers of this Elite Juggernaut, which is a pretty wild exaggeration. The Baltimore Ravens statistically were a much better team than the 49ers. They’re gone. By the way, the Patriots defense was one of the better defense as we’ve seen a very long time the offense did struggle but they’re gone much better defense than the 49ers defense. So I’m not I’m not even going to sit here and try to Des Peres the 49ers cuz that’s silly because I care about my ability to think it’s not so much about reputation. I just don’t want to be dumb for my own sake and it would be dumb to to Discount the 49ers in San Francisco. That’s a tough.
31m 60s – 32m 50s
Matchup, but guess what? It’s the playoff but the point is every team right now. It’s got a tough matchup. The Titans have a tough matchup. The Packers have a tough matchup, but guess what the Chiefs also have a really tough game ahead of them. And so do the 49ers and anybody giving any message beyond that is dumb either they’re dumb on purpose or they don’t know it and I don’t know if this is like trying to grab as much attention as you can while everybody’s looking at the Super Bowl everybody’s looking at the NFL right now because we’re really close to the end. There’s only four teams left. So I got to just say the most ridiculous stuff to get as many retweets as possible doesn’t matter if I get ratioed. It’s just, you know, I just need as much attention as possible right now make myself look important. I don’t know. I really don’t understand why this would ever happen because look going back to the initial thing Packers versus 49ers Pass Run.
32m 51s – 33m 51s
Shrug is Awash. If you want to see the 49ers pass rushers better fine. I don’t care maybe I mean listen, they’re both good enough that if you told me the 49ers had a better day rushing the passer than the Packers did I wouldn’t be shocked in the least neither should anyone be shocked if the Packers have more success rushing the passer than the 49ers because guess what both teams have incredible pass-rush units. It’s not even really debatable and saying the Packers have no path to Victory is lazy. It’s just laziness. Anyways, let’s take a break and I want to zoom in a little bit more on the sort of analytical side of it look a little bit more specifically and what it takes and and what the conditions are for winning and losing because I actually care about learning these things. I actually want to grow as a person who watches football. I want to have actual opinions that matter and I want to give you information that’s actually nourishing as opposed to just walk into a room and just start swinging wildly just a hammer in search of an
33m 51s – 34m 51s
Knowing full well that I’m just going to shatter windows in and you know knockout Grandma, but I don’t care cuz I just want to be wild I don’t I don’t know I can tell you though if I ever get big enough to where I have like a website or anything and there are people making those kinds of arguments on Twitter. We’re going to have a conversation about that because I care much less about cloud and I’ll care much more about reputation and the fact that I hired someone that’s such a dummy that is admitting online that I have no ability. No and no amount of intelligence to come up with a scenario in which the Packers can beat the 49ers and then get out of here with hyperbole make statements that make sense sound intelligent for once in awhile, you know occasionally try your best. Can you do it? Maybe you shouldn’t be here if you can’t put a coherent logical statements and string them together and I’m a little bit more agitated than usual. I’m sorry and I made up a note to myself yesterday trying to be a little less angry. Let’s have fun.
34m 51s – 35m 30s
But I just I’m I’m I’m so I want the Packers to beat the 49ers so badly and it’s not even about the 49ers anymore. I used to really dislike the 49ers. I want all of these people who are saying all of this nonsense to go hide under a rock until August. Will they pop back out make more declarative statements and hope that we forgot cuz this is all nonsense and it’s just it just infuriates me. Everybody’s got their their things that they just can’t tolerate this. Is it for me people walking around with their chest out calling themselves Authority because Twitter says, yes, that’s who he says he is and then saying mindless nonsense and then sticking your nose up at people who give reasonable.
35m 31s – 36m 31s
Arguments about why you’re wrong, but then goes to a fall like you would know just it just makes me crazy but we’re going to take a break. I’m going to get up and walk around splash some cold water on my face when we to try to look at Stats facts and information for a little bit to close this thing out as let’s continue on looking at this offensive thing for the 49er. So for example, looking at points score when the team has scored 26 or more points their undefeated when they get to 24 points or less there three and three remember 24 points is the magic number again. This is all right. I’m not upset point is though if you want an answer to the question, how did the Packers win this game? It’s relatively simple. The defense needs to do what it’s done all year keep the San Francisco 49ers to 24 or less points again. Only three times this entire year has a Teamster past 24 points on this defendant if they can do that again, they put the seat of the 49ers of Sorry For Keeps.
36m 31s – 37m 31s
Seahawks are why I’m confused right now. They put the 49ers in a situation where they’re at about 50% That’s that’s a tough spot to be in because you look at him you said well, this is a team that won a lot of a lot of game 9/14 win team that went on this other games. Okay, but if you divide told you right now or if you told me that this team is only going to get 24 points. This is a 50 fit. This is a coin flip. So this this this is largely been in the the floor is set by the defense, right? So that’s that’s the defense. They look just get above 24 or in this case get 26 or higher Devon four25. So the line is is a couple points thick and typically the way that you gauge it got to kind of think this through for a second. The lower. The line is on your side the better the other portion of the team is so for example that the line that the defense sets for the offense is about 20, 25 points right above it. You win below at your 50/50. So that’s the line that the defense sets for the often does not bad, right? The Packers are a
37m 31s – 38m 30s
The better their line is about 24 or technically, I guess 23 because if you can score at least 24 points were in good good position here on the flip side of this looking at the defendant again, it’s slightly less predict. If I were to send a line it would still be at about 26th. The team would win offensive score more than 26 Point Thayer again 50% there too and to however there is one outlier the defense held the Baltimore Ravens to 20 points and they didn’t win why cuz the offense didn’t hold their end of the bargain again. The point is the offense has been the main driver of this team. And so what you see when that’s the case is that when the main driver doesn’t do its job the team doesn’t the team’s odds of losing go up really high similar to what we’ve seen with Aaron Rodgers in the past. Aaron Rodgers is the main move the offense more broadly is the main move with the offense isn’t doing its job what happened? It didn’t matter if the defense was having a good day. You know this go back two thousand nine 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 18 with the exception of a couple years.
38m 31s – 39m 30s
Defense being okay, you know full well, even if the defense is having a fairly good day at the office just can’t get moving we’re done and so that is largely the case with the 49ers. I’m just drilling at home because that has not really been the narrative. And so I think the biggest goal going into this. Although it’s a mean they’re good on both sides of the ball is that if you want to win you have to find a way to shut down the offense the good news for the Packers is if if if you were to tell me that the Packers are either going to dominate their defense or the defense is going to dominate their offense. Which do you think the Packers would have an easier time do it and I don’t mean to say it easy against second highest scoring offense in football, but could you see a path for example in which the Packers defense is disruptive enough that the 49ers aren’t exactly have in their best and I can remember we’re just saying keep them to 2424 point isn’t a terrible day. So are we saying the Packers at their best can’t keep the 49ers 24-point. It’s happened 6 times already this year the Falcons come from 222 the Rams come from 222.
39m 31s – 40m 30s
Redskins Captain 9 going to be in the 49ers even won that game is cuz they didn’t allow a single point to be scored by the Redskin so that would definitely be an example of the defense carrying that game but it’s it’s an outlier. Let’s look at something else. I talked a little bit about comparing Aaron Rodgers to Jimmy Garoppolo, but let’s take that information and say how do we disrupt this off in again? 24 points doesn’t guarantee a victory but it it drops a 14 went down to AAA 500 team a 50/50 15 similarly if we compare Jimmy Garoppolo with no pressure compared to pressure. It’s night and day in this is true with most teams. But again, we’re trying to figure out how to make this team. Not an elite football team. Let’s let’s look at it again when Jimmy Garoppolo is not under pressure 276 completions an 81.1 completion adjusted completion for 7 that is removing throwaways drops and batted passes. If you don’t want to do that, it’s still 73.2 which is insanely High. He’s thrown for 3245 yards 23
40m 31s – 41m 30s
Touchdowns nine interception 8.6 yards per attempt. He’s very very good contrast that with any time. Jimmy Garoppolo is under pressure 54% completions 864 yards 7.3 yards for a temperature still pretty high five touchdowns 5 interception sacked 38 times. So again a big part of the equation is the quarterback in the question is are we going to face a really good quarterback when I really bad quarterback and I’m telling you there’s a direct line between whether he’s pressured or not Which Wich just logically means the more times we pressure him the more times we get the 47 overall the another words. The bad is Jimmy Garoppolo and the times in which we can’t fresh when we get Elite Jimmy Garoppolo and then the blending of the two ends up being an average as far as how good of a game Jimmy Garoppolo has had meaning fresh air compressor compressor him in this is self-evident the Packers win if we can pressure Jimmy Garoppolo, they suddenly have a bad quarterback.
41m 30s – 42m 30s
All they have to do it if we just look at the grades Jimmy Garoppolo his hat the best game. He played all year and kind of by a lot with week 17 against Seattle the worst game. He played all year was week 10 against Seattle again. This is a big piece. I know he’s not the George Kittle of the often but George Kittle isn’t getting the ball if Jimmy Garoppolo in playing right the best game he played all year in a loss. He got graded out at a 63, which is barely out. The other games was a 44 + a 49 against Baltimore any game in which Jimmy Garoppolo head even a 65 overall gray. They won the game. I’m not saying this is the only key but there’s a massive component because I can’t remember the offense is more the keys in the defense and Jimmy Garoppolo is the main component of the office. He’s not the best player on offense, but he’s the easiest disruption. The Packers can have because taking away George Kittle. It’s probably going to be a lot more complicated than just disrupt.
42m 30s – 43m 30s
Jimmy Garoppolo before he can even get the ball to George Kittle. So I think at the end of the day this comes down to an endless in a lot of the success from the past comes from being able to run the ball successful again. I mentioned Raheem mostert in his ability to run for a lot of yards. And if you remember when we looked at the Detroit Lions, it was a high yards-per-attempt, but really that just came in a couple of game and a relatively small sample size. That’s not the case here last week Raheem had 4.8 yards per carry the week before that 5.7 4.8 3.96 Point 97.7 7.5 since Green Bay, that’s what he’s done prior to that the yard percent wasn’t that good since then pretty solid every single week. There was a 3.9 in there, but there’s also a 75077 us-69 this guy in particular in the 49ers and general have run the ball very, well. You run the ball. Well, it it hurts our ability to rush the passer because we’re not shooting is hard in the backfield. We’re not disrupting the quarterback and then he’s able to destroy
43m 30s – 44m 30s
The ball my thought on that is that the running the ball in order to try to get you to back off so that they can throw because that’s how they win football game. We have to stay committed to rushing the passer if you got a tweet something or just something change something to try to stop the run that doesn’t involve backing off the pass rusher if you want to keep them in Titanfall. It’s a corner. I don’t care how you do it because stopping the run is very important. But if they want to run for a lot of yards and rack up yards and still lose the game, I’m fine with that. It’s like a magic trick Matt don’t watch you know, the flashing object is moving their hand around trying to distract you while all the while. The other hand is the one sneaking into the pocket. They’re trying to distract you with the run or trying to scare you with the Run. They ran for 174 yards fifth-highest. They ran all year against the Baltimore Ravens. They still lost that game hundred 74 yards is a lot of rushing yards. Let him Dazzle you with their ability to run the ball because the fact of the matter is in that same game. He only threw for 157 yards, which is the fourth-lowest all C’s
44m 31s – 45m 30s
Fifth highest rushing yards 4th lowest passing yards. They lost that game. Don’t be scared of them running the ball find a way to stop it. If you can it’s going to help you but keep coming for Jimmy keep going after them the same way you did Russell because the fact of the matter is getting Russell five times as unbelievable because they had them in their sights at least 10 times. The only reason again, they didn’t have 10 sacks is cuz of his ability to scram Jimmy Garoppolo Ain’t That way not going to happen. So Darius Kenny Preston Rashawn fackrell Lake anybody that wants to get in on the corners the safeties the more heat we get on that guy the better our chance of winning this game again, he’s got just as good of a chance when he’s under pressure of throwing a touchdown as he does a Pick 5 touchdowns 5 interception that game against Seattle in week 10 very very close game Seattle. It listened Seattle’s not as good of a football team is the 49ers right that sort of overall broad statistical more statistics are going to line up for the 49ers and the Seahawks.
45m 31s – 46m 30s
Nothing, but the Seahawks found a way to scrap and battle and win again. That was his worst game and it’s not a coincidence. That was the second most amount of sacks. He had all your he was sacked five times in that game. Of course, there’s a million different keys and in things that are going on in any given game but this is the biggest one in that game against San Francisco. Za’darius did not play that terribly but he had five pressures. That’s one of the lowest he’s had all year Preston only had two pressure Kenny Clark had one pressure. There were 10 total pressures in the entire game 10 freshers. There were 30 last week against Seattle 30 Kenny Clark had seven by himself including a sack. He only had one pressure against San Francisco last time Preston Smith had seven pressures za’darius Smith had 11 pressure talking about this past week and interesting enough. The pressure is already. It’s it’s a giant vac the Lions, you know, obviously not that good of a team right almost beat the pack. Is it a coincidence?
46m 31s – 47m 30s
Since the Packers only had 11 pressures in the game to Darius had six Preston and Kenny Clark had zero pressures in the game, even though the Ben Baldwin to the world and what not all the way perfectly agree with the statement that he made he’s pointed out if you look at DV away, it’s the defense that is massively improved over the last year not the often and I disagree that it’s while then they should have got rid of Mike McCarthy on his phone. Do you watch the games and saw the play calls in the end? It was pretty well known that this is a very vanilla Often by the way, just terrible play calling. I mean the plays are not that creative and Innovative. I think there’s something else going on there. First of all, the talent level is still what it was last year add in the fact that despite it’s a newer better scheme. It’s a more unfamiliar skis, but that’s that’s beside the point. The point is this is a team that right now is being driven by defense and that’s okay, but we need the defense to do its job and primarily the main mover. The main driver is pressure Seattle game. We won that because
47m 30s – 48m 30s
30 pressures and 5 sacks in that game. How do we beat the Minnesota Viking 20 pressures six sacks at least PFF calculate. They don’t do half sack even if you don’t like that number for the official box number was five. That’s how the team does a man when they rise up and B teams are not supposed to be in environment. They’re not supposed to be comfortable in its the defense that brings that pressure that gets the other team uncomfortable cuz that’s the main factor when you’re at home in an environment in which you don’t lose the 49ers are comfortable right now. They know they’re very good football team and they are they know they don’t lose at home with the exception of the Ravens but you know, the Raven was closed, but they know they know they’re a really good team and this is their house and they’ve got a great game plan and they trust that Shanahan those LaFleur inside out and they trust that they got this all figured out but that first time za’darius shoots through the line and berries Jimmy garoppolo’s head into the ground is the moment that all that confidence goes right out the window. Suddenly the Roar of the crowd isn’t there backing you up anymore? Suddenly you realize this is
48m 30s – 49m 30s
Something that’s just going to be pushed around it as much as you might think we’re better siderius doesn’t care as not going to make it hurt less when you see Kenny Clark is just a wild animal. That won’t stop rashan. Gary is is literally just a wild animal he’s unrefined. But he’s while and you look at the size of him and you wonder how can a man move that fast? I don’t know if you had a chance to go see if you can find he had one pressure on the game last week. It was his first play only had like 9 Russia’s so it was at 7, I think actually seven times you rush the passer the first time you did it again. That was the most za’darius Smith. Ask rush I’ve ever seen it was just I’m going to squeeze right between two guys about the other guy wasn’t really blocking but it wasn’t really so much technique. It was just I’m better. I’m bigger. I’m stronger. I’m faster and I’m going to squeeze past you I’m going to go around you and I’m going to hunt from the back side. And if you didn’t get cut his legs cut off from underneath them. He might have gotten Richard Russell Wilson from behind. I don’t care what you think. I don’t care what the stats say. None of that matter.
49m 30s – 50m 30s
You have to find a way to operate in that environment in this will be a hostile environment. I don’t care whose house it is. That is the key. That is the goal disrupt if his offense is able to get in Rhythm. They will hang up 30 points again 37 to be exact and that was really it that that that’s what it came down to right. What did I say that the key essentially for both teams is the defense needs to find a way to disrupt the offense. The Packers could not disrupt the offense. They got into a rhythm and essentially just scored on every driving right up 37 points the 49ers defense against a struggling bakhtiari and Alex light were able to disrupt Aaron Rodgers on almost every single drop back causing them to not be able to get into a rhythm and get a point. That was the key then it’s the key. Now. The question is will the Packers defense rise to the occasion this time or not. Will the Packers offensive line rise to the occasion or not? Those are the only two questions that matter if the answer is yes, the Packers have a very good chance of winning this game. It’s up to the offensive.
50m 30s – 50m 34s
defensive line of the Green Bay Packers bottom line
50m 35s – 51m 5s
just like I said before Aaron Rodgers just needs an opportunity to be the hero. The defense needs to keep the ball in his hand. Keep the score low the offensive line needs to give him a chance to stand on his feet and deliver a ball. Just give him the chance to be the hero and bring this team to a Super Bowl and I believe he will do it. Anyways, that’s all I got you folks. Enjoy your Saturday. As always. I will talk to you tomorrow. Hopefully, I’ll get something out one way or another, but otherwise you folks have yourself a fantastic day. Talk to you tomorrow. Bye. Bye.