Jordan Love’s development into a starting-caliber quarterback has been anything but linear. After sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for three seasons, he took command of the Green Bay Packers’ offense in 2023 and showed flashes of both brilliance and inconsistency. Now entering his fifth NFL season, Love has a sizable body of work—both in regular-season and playoff environments—to anchor meaningful prop betting strategies.
As sportsbooks release early 2025 markets, bettors can capitalize on the numbers by digging into the data and pinpointing where the value lies.
Passing Yards: Ceiling Growing With Confidence
The most common quarterback prop is total passing yards. Love threw for 4,159 yards in 2023, then followed up with 3,389 in 2024. That drop is less concerning than it looks. In 2024, he played two fewer games but improved his yards per attempt to 8.0—a strong efficiency marker. If he plays all 17 games in 2025, projecting him in the 4,200–4,400 yard range is reasonable, especially with another year in Matt LaFleur’s system and improved chemistry with his receivers.
Look for sportsbooks to open a passing yards total on Jordan Love in the low 4,000s. If the total is posted under 4,000, that’s an opportunity to strike early. With 579 and 425 attempts the past two seasons, the workload is stable enough to support the over, provided he stays healthy.
Passing Touchdowns: High Upside with Risk
Touchdown props are more volatile, but Love’s production here deserves attention. He passed for 32 touchdowns in 2023 and 25 in 2024. What’s notable is his red zone comfort and deep-ball ability, including a career-long pass of 77 yards. LaFleur isn’t afraid to call aggressive plays, even in short-yardage situations, which can skew touchdown opportunities in Love’s favor.
Expect his 2025 passing TD total to open around 26.5. If you believe in his growth and the Packers’ red zone efficiency, the over offers clear upside. His TD/INT ratio (60:25) suggests he’s managing risks better with experience.
Rushing Yards: Don’t Overlook the Quiet Floor
Love isn’t Lamar Jackson, but he’s not a statue either. He’s quietly put together 356 career rushing yards, with a peak of 247 in 2023. While 2024 saw a dip to 83 yards, that was also a season where he focused more on pocket passing, averaging a career-best 8.0 yards per pass attempt.
Rushing yard props are often mispriced for QBs like Love—players who aren’t considered dual threats but still pick up crucial yards. If his rushing total sits under 150 yards for the season, the over could be a valuable play, especially if defenses focus more on deep coverage and give him space to scramble.
Interceptions: A Tricky Market with Split Trends
Interception props are generally unattractive for casual bettors, but there’s some edge here. Love threw 11 picks in both 2023 and 2024, despite a decrease in attempts. That signals slightly better decision-making year over year, but it also suggests his floor might be stuck around 10–12.
Books may post his season INT total at 11.5. That’s a difficult line to beat confidently either way, but if the Packers lean on the run game more this season—especially with defensive improvements—you might lean under if you anticipate a lower volume of attempts.
Postseason Props: Worth Monitoring if Packers Trend Up
In the 2023 postseason, Love was stellar in his first two games, throwing five touchdowns and just two interceptions with a 108.6 rating. His 2024 playoff outing was a regression—three picks and zero touchdowns in a single game. That inconsistency makes postseason props riskier, but also possibly mispriced if the market reacts too harshly to his latest playoff result.
If Green Bay looks like a 10+ win team mid-season, speculative futures on Love’s playoff passing totals or touchdown props could carry sneaky value, especially if he’s matched up against a middling defense in the Wild Card round.
Longshot Markets: MVP, Most Passing TDs
If you’re looking beyond standard stat props, there are longshot markets worth considering. Love currently sits on the outside of most MVP conversations, but with 60 passing touchdowns in his last two seasons, a breakout year in a strong NFC could change that. He’s not at Mahomes, Burrow, or Allen’s level, but his odds will reflect that. Early 2025 MVP lines that price him at 40/1 or longer might be worth a fractional wager.
The same goes for “Most Passing Touchdowns” props. He finished top five in 2023 with 32. If he regains that form in 2025, he could challenge again—especially if Green Bay commits to a pass-first identity.
Weekly Prop Angles: Best Spots to Target
Some of Love’s sharpest value may appear in weekly matchups. He’s shown a clear trend of performing better against zone-heavy defenses, while struggling at times versus aggressive man-coverage teams. Look for overs in games against secondaries that drop into soft zones or teams that struggle to generate pressure. Conversely, the under may offer value in matchups against physical corners and high-blitz teams.
Timing matters, too. Player props are especially sensitive to in-week injury developments and depth chart shifts. Staying current with the latest NFL player updates—such as a key defender being ruled out or a new starting cornerback taking the field—can swing a passing yards line by as much as 20–30 yards. These nuances often fly under the radar but create prime betting windows when acted on quickly.
If the Packers face an early-season stretch with dome games or pass-friendly weather, that’s another window to hit overs before sportsbooks fully adjust.
Building Smart Jordan Love Prop Portfolios
For the 2025 season, the best value markets around Jordan Love will likely be:
- Passing Yards Over (if posted below 4,000),
- Rushing Yards Over (especially below 150),
- Longshot: Most Passing Touchdowns (small exposure),
- Bounce-Back Game Overs (after INT-heavy weeks).
Love’s 2023 campaign proved he belongs in the starting tier of NFL quarterbacks. With nearly 8,200 career passing yards and a strong supporting cast, his betting profile combines steady volume, moderate athleticism, and flashes of elite production. The 2025 season offers a critical chance for him to cement his status—and for savvy bettors to take advantage of the mispricings that come with it.