There are a ton of great plays for daily fantasy football in week 3. The past two weeks brought some clarity to the NFL landscape. I’m not sure how much easier that makes daily fantasy football, but at least we’re starting to understand which teams are good, and which teams aren’t so good, and that makes me feel a bit more comfortable when comparing players and match-ups.
I was correct on some incredible performances (Trevor Siemian, anyone?), but overall the picks I suggested in the article did not meet the quality standards I want to meet every week. Here’s hoping this week treats me better.
Before I give my QB picks, let me explain why I’m not picking Rodgers as my top QB this week. I think he’ll have an okay game, but I don’t think this is going to be a game that yields a lot of points. If I were more of a gambler, I’d be betting hard on the under. As of writing this, I haven’t heard anything that guarantees both tackles will play this week, and even if Jordy plays, thigh injuries can linger, so he won’t be the same, and he’s the catalyst of that offense. Rodgers might get his standard 20 or so points, but I don’t think his value is as good as some others with the price tag he carries.
My top pick goes to the enemy this week, Matthew Stafford.
Call me insane for constantly picking against the Falcons, but I’m just not a believer. Justifiably, I don’t believe one bit in their defense. But I have to give credit where it’s due: their offense can score a lot of points—especially when they play in cozy, weather-condition-controlled domes, which is what they’ll play in this week.
The Falcons’ offensive firepower may concern Detroit Lions fans in real football terms, but who cares about Lions fans, am I right? It seems likely, perhaps even probable, that the Lions will need to score a lot of points to win this game, which bodes well for fantasy football production for all the Lions offensive players, but especially for Stafford.
Don’t let Monday night’s poor statistical performance scare you away from him this week. Stafford dropped 28 points against the Cardinals the week prior because he had to throw, and this game could easily turn into a shootout. At $6,200 on DraftKings, that’s value you don’t find very often.
Yet again, DraftKings lags behind FanDuel in updating their player pricing. The Giants haven’t given up a ton through the air, but both teams ran the ball effectively against them, so they didn’t need to air it out. Philly doesn’t run the ball, though, so they’re going to see a lot of the Eagles passing game, and that should spell big returns for fantasy owners. I almost made Wentz my top pick, but Stafford vs Atlanta has too much potential.
If you’re looking to go against the crowd, Rivers has posted two decent fantasy games, despite those ending in real-life losses. In week 1, he benefitted tremendously from Denver’s mistakes, leading to three touchdowns, and in week 2, he threw for over 300 yards, but struggled to find the end zone. I think he puts it all together this week. The Chiefs defense has been porous, allowing 27 to New England and 20 to Philadelphia.
The first two weeks of the season have made it clear that the KC offense runs through Kareem Hunt. The Chargers aren’t exactly terrible against the run, but neither are they stout. Hunt’s value—in both real and fantasy terms—is that he’s such a dangerous receiving option. If the Chargers manage to slow down this rushing attack, the Chiefs will throw the ball, and Hunt will still see plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points for you. The only problem with picking Kareem Hunt is that if you want to win the big prizes this week, everyone else is probably going to pick him too.
The offensive line’s health remains a question as I’m writing this, and Jordy’s quad injury will potentially hobble him a bit, so this could be a good opportunity for the Packers to simplify the game for their linemen, and run the ball. If there’s ever a team for the Packers to pound the ball against, it’s the Bengals: they’re terrible against the run. Even if they don’t run it a ton, Montgomery is putting up numbers against decent defenses, so he should be in for another great game because, again, the Bengals are terrible.
If I’m right about Rivers, Allen will be the primary benefactor. His numbers vs Denver were poor, but most receivers don’t put up good numbers against Denver. He came back strong in Miami, and I’m thinking he’ll have similar success this week.
Tate is clearly Stafford’s favorite target, which means that there should be a lot of throws coming his way against the Falcons. Tate doesn’t produce many TDs, but the target advantage should negate any potential TD advantage other players on the time might have with a full point per reception on DraftKings.
With Evans likely facing Xavier Rhoades all day, Jackson should see some extra targets this week. Better yet, Trae Waynes is giving up the third most yards per cover snap, so DJax should have a lot of room to work.
Paying $6000 for Kelce is like paying $6000 for another team’s number one wideout. He’s clearly Smith’s favorite target, and he’s capable of big plays, and big points, every week.
I’m looking for Ertz to have another good performance, and probably find the end zone for the first time this season. The Giants have been awful versus tight ends this year. At $5000, Ertz is hard to pass up.
Miller is one of two reliable pass catchers on the Bears offense, and the other guy doesn’t play every down (Tarik Cohen). I expect the Bears to go down by a lot early, so they’ll need to pass a lot, yet again. That should be a good thing for Miller.
The Giants offense has been dreadful through two weeks. This isn’t run-of-the-mill badness, this is a different level. They look like they’re falling apart. The Eagles are good at taking the ball away, and Eli is prone to turnovers. Given that the Giants also can’t score to save their lives, this should be a big game for Philly’s D. Now watch Eli go into idiot-savant mode and drag the team to another improbable Super Bowl win.
The Bears looked like they planned to throw the ball last week against the Bucs, and that was a terrible plan. They might not want to throw this week, but the score will probably force them to throw it. If you’ve got the extra $400, I think the Steelers are the best play this week. I wouldn’t force this pick, though, if you need $400 to get Antonio Brown, that’s definitely a better use of $400.
That’ll do it for this week. For more fantasy football discussion, check out today’s podcast.