Across most sports, you will hear a lot of chatter about the so-called home-field advantage. This is a phenomenon where the team playing at home is supposed to have a big leg-up on their visitors simply because of being in their own backyard in familiar surroundings.
Whether it’s swinging towards UK greyhound betting sites, diving into the latest NBA or NHL seasons or tracking along with current NFL lines, there is a lot of noise about home-field advantage. But is it little more than just noise?
The latest surrounding this particular analytic in the NFL suggests that playing at home may not be as big of an advantage as it once was. That the precious home-field advantage is diminishing. But is that reason enough to ignore it?
Key Observations
Where does the home-field advantage phenomenon come from? It’s looked at as being more of a psychological thing than anything else really. A home team like the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field playing in front of a sizable, partisan crowd for example, is expected to be advantageously influenced by being in that position.
Home support: This is hotly promoted as being one of the major positive influences of being at home. If the Packers are chasing a three-point deficit with just a few minutes left on the clock, or even throwing down some last-minute defense to protect a narrow lead, then the extra noise cheering them on is likely to have a big influence. Every little positive gain on the pitch is magnified by the crowd support.
Familiarity of surroundings: This is another obvious area of the home-field advantage. A home team knows exactly what environment they are stepping into. This ties in with familiar playing conditions as well, as the home team will know the footing of the playing surface and general weather conditions.
Opposing team travels: Opposing teams sometimes have to put in long trips to play on the road in the NFL. It’s suggested that things like travel fatigue, the disruption of routine and just the general hassle of having to travel work into the home team’s favor.
Point differential: This is an interesting area, and it’s not one written in stone as it changes from season to season. Home teams do tend to have a slightly higher points differential, which lends support to home-field advantage. But this is an area that has been decreasing in recent seasons.
When it’s needed the most: Come to the NFL playoffs, no team wants to be on the road. They psychologically want those home comforts. Historically in the NFL playoffs, this is a big time when having a home advantage does pay off. Between 2010 and 2020, more than 60% of playoff matches were won by the home team.
Are Away Performances Increasing?
Of course, analytics can be skewed to fit a motive. So is the home advantage a myth, or should it be taken seriously? Since the turn of the century, the average home team winning margin has dropped significantly from around an average of 2 points down to less than half of a point across the NFL.
That’s a huge shift. So what subjectively could be happening here? Well naturally science is only going to get better and better, and this could hugely boost the performances of away teams. If teams are employing specialists to deal with eliminating the stresses of hitting the road, that could level the playing field.
The game is shifting as well, with offenses getting stronger and importantly more creative on the first couple of downs, to avoid the panic and pressures of getting to the third down situations on the road.
The sports science of siege mentality from an away team knowing that they are going to be under pressure, most likely as an underdog, can unite a team to produce bigger, better performances.
Does It All Matter?
In the bigger picture, yes. While margins may be narrowing and away teams getting better at adapting to foreign conditions, the proof of the pudding is in the success rate of the majority of teams going to the playoffs. Look back at the 2022 season and you will see the importance of strong home records.
Aside from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4-0) at home, the rest of the divisional winners all had spectacular home records. The 49ers were 8-1-0 as were the Vikings and the Cowboys who finished second to the Eagles (7-2-0) in the NFC East.
In black and white the stats show that success comes from building a fortress mentality on home field. The Packers for example, only came up 5-4-0 at Lambeau in the NFC North. Home-field advantage clearly can’t work for every team in a season. But without it, it’s difficult to boost the overall win percentage in a season to reach the playoffs.