One of the best ways to help build excitement for the upcoming NFL season is to get some futures bets in. Both DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbooks offer exclusive futures bets called “team specials,” and we’ll take a look at some of those bets available for the Green Bay Packers. I’ll break down which bets are worth taking and which should be avoided at all costs.
What are Team Specials, and Why Bet Them?
As sports betting has become more popular, the amount of markets customers can bet on has grown. One of the primary markets that are talked about often are futures bets, which allow bettors to wager on win totals, yards in a season, or if a team will make the playoffs. While bettors can find these markets individually, sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel have created uniquely crafted bets for different teams.
Most, if not all, of these “team special” bets are plus money wagers that can be full-team or player specific. For example, one of these special bets for the Packers on DraftKings is “Will Christian Watson record 75+ receiving yards in eight or more regular season games,” which is priced at (+120).
If a customer in the Wisconsin sports betting community enjoys betting on their team while also rooting for them, then these “specials” are tailor-made for them. They combine individual stats for the team’s big-name players along with creative betting angles, which can result in solid payouts if the right ones are taken.
The key here is the right bets because while some offer excellent value, others are just flat-out bad investments. That said, I’ve done all the work for you in figuring out which are good future betting investments to make and which are there to steal money.
Team Specials Worth A Full Unit
Christian Watson or Aaron Jones to Have 1250+ Regular Season Yards From Scrimmage (+125): We are all aware of the turnover to the Packers’ offense. One thing that didn’t change is Aaron Jones will be in the backfield, and one of the biggest changes is Christian Watson will now be the primary receiver. Getting this bet at plus money is why these “specials” are worth checking.
Jones had 1,516 total yards last season, and with a first-year starter at the helm at QB, his role will not be changing in the slightest. In fact, Green Bay will likely finish the season ranked higher in rushes per game than they did last season, so the opportunities will be there.
AJ Dillon or Romeo Doubs to Have Over 1000 Regular Season Yards From Scrimmage (+125): Dillon finished the 2022 season with a total of 996 yards, and if the Packers coaching staff is looking to make things easy on Love then Dillon will also likely see a few more carries or check down passes this season. Not only will he likely see a spike in carries and catches, but six of his games will be against divisional opponents, and all four NFC North teams finished 21st or higher in average rushing yards allowed per game last season.
Bets Worth .5 Units
Any Packers Player to Have 10+ Regular Season Rush or Receiving Touchdowns (+500): The closest a Packers player came to this number last season was Christian Watson with seven receiving touchdowns and AJ Dillon with seven rushing touchdowns. Watson seems to be the right guy to have this bet be successful, as he will step into a more prominent role this season with Lazard out of the picture.
Watson finished the year with 66 targets, and that was after a slow start to his career; if he’s given close to the number of targets Lazard got last season (100), there is no reason why he can’t haul in three more touchdowns. Not only did Watson finish tied for 29th last season in yards after the catch per reception, but he was also tied for 17th in receiving yards per target, so if he forms good chemistry with Jordan Love, the potential for touchdowns will be there weekly.
Bets to Avoid Entirely
Jordan Love 4,000+ Regular SeasonPassing Yards + Christian Watson 10+ Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns (+350): I know I just broke down the path for Watson to have ten or more touchdowns, but the reason to stay away here is the Jordan Love part of the bet. This isn’t me saying that Love is going to be bad this season, but only nine quarterbacks in the league threw for over 4,000 yards last season, and on top of that, the Packers were 18th in passes per game and pass play percentage last year. It’s best to stay away from a wager that revolves around Love putting up Pro Bowl-caliber numbers in his first year as a starter.
Jordan Love 400+ Passing Yards in 2+ Regular Season Games (+380): The fact that this has lower odds than any player to have ten or more touchdowns is a bit shocking to me. Last season only six quarterbacks threw for over 400 yards in a game, with Kirk Cousins and Patrick Mahomes being the only two to do it twice.
In the Packers’ offense last season, run by the same head coach, Aaron Rodgers didn’t have one game where he threw for over 300 yards, so betting on Love to go over 400 twice is not worth even the smallest of units.